The Liberty Flames take on the UTEP Miners in El Paso, Texas. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. UTEP, meanwhile, is a +1.5 underdog and comes in at +105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 points.
Here’s my Liberty vs. UTEP predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 8.
Liberty vs UTEP Prediction
- Liberty vs. UTEP Pick: UTEP +1.5
My UTEP vs. Liberty best bet is on the Miners to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Liberty vs UTEP Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- Liberty vs UTEP Spread: Liberty -1.5, UTEP +1.5
- Liberty vs UTEP Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Liberty vs UTEP Moneyline: Liberty -115, UTEP -105
Liberty vs UTEP College Football Betting Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Offense Struggling Under Backup QB
Liberty’s offense has struggled to find its rhythm, and the advanced numbers confirm it.
The Flames rank 119th nationally in EPA per Pass at -0.17 and 93rd in EPA/Rush at -0.03, signaling an inability to generate explosive plays or maintain consistent drive efficiency.
Their Available Yards Percentage of just 38.4% underscores the offense’s difficulty turning possessions into meaningful scoring opportunities.
These weaknesses align poorly against a UTEP defense that's quietly performed to a top-30 level this season.
The Miners rank 26th in EPA per Pass Allowed at -0.17 and 25th in EPA per Rush Allowed at -0.14, demonstrating a balanced ability to limit air and ground production.
Even more impressive, UTEP ranks third nationally in third- and fourth-down Success Rate, allowing conversions on only 28.1% of such attempts.
Liberty, by comparison, converts just 40% of its third and fourth downs, ranking 107th nationally. This disparity in critical downs could prove decisive in a low-possession game.
Personnel issues further compound Liberty’s offensive problems.
Starting quarterback Ethan Vasko has been battling a shoulder and neck injury, forcing backup Michael Merdinger into extended action. While Merdinger provides mobility, he has struggled with accuracy and decision-making against better defenses.
Vasko expects to play, but it remains to be seen if he'll be at 100%.
To make matters worse, offensive guard Cal Grubbs has been ruled out for the season, and tackle Trey Bedosky is questionable.
These injuries have disrupted pass protection and run blocking, leaving the Flames vulnerable against an aggressive UTEP front.
UTEP Miners Betting Preview: Expect Big Things From Ground Game
UTEP’s offense hasn't been without flaws, ranking 129th in EPA per Pass at -0.24 and 118th in EPA per Rush at -0.12.
Once a highly-touted five-star recruit, quarterback Malachi Nelson has shown flashes of talent but remains inconsistent, particularly when pressured.
Despite those struggles, this matchup provides a potential path for improvement.
Liberty’s defense has been shaky against the run, ranking 117th in EPA per Rush Allowed at +0.10, and its overall Available Yards Allowed rate of 49.1% suggests a tendency to let opponents sustain drives.
The Miners’ offensive approach should focus on simplifying early downs, utilizing short passing concepts and relying on inside zone runs to stay ahead of schedule.
Liberty’s defense thrives when it forces opponents into long third downs, but UTEP can negate that advantage by staying patient and limiting negative plays.
The Sun Bowl’s high altitude, dry air and moderate wind will also make it difficult for Liberty’s defense to maintain energy across four quarters, particularly given the travel from the East Coast and the short preparation window.
If UTEP can establish any semblance of rhythm offensively and protect the football, its defense can carry it deep into the fourth quarter with a chance to win outright.
Liberty vs UTEP Pick, Betting Analysis
The betting market initially opened Liberty as a 2.5-point favorite, but sharp money quickly trimmed the line down to -1.5, showing early support for UTEP. ESPN’s predictive model gives UTEP a 57.3% chance to win the game outright, implying a fair line closer to UTEP -2 rather than +1.5.
Environmental conditions also favor the Miners. Kickoff temperatures are expected to hover around 80 degrees with minimal humidity and winds near 10-12 miles per hour.
These conditions suppress explosive passing plays and tilt outcomes toward teams that can win in the trenches, which is precisely where UTEP holds its most consistent advantage.
Injuries also favor the home side. Liberty’s quarterback uncertainty and depth issues on the offensive line could limit play-calling aggression.
Meanwhile, UTEP enters relatively stable, with its main losses coming at the wide receiver and running back positions, where the coaching staff has developed capable replacements.
This matchup projects to be a deliberate, field-position-driven contest, where defensive play and third-down performance will be key.
Liberty’s offense has leaned heavily on the run, often settling for conservative play-calling when behind the chains. That tendency hits on UTEP’s defensive strengths, which center on early-down containment and efficient tackling.
Expect a slower pace, limited possessions and a total that likely stays under 50 points. In that kind of environment, every third-down stop and turnover looms large.
UTEP’s elite efficiency on money downs and Liberty’s inconsistency through the air suggest that the Miners will have multiple opportunities to seize momentum at home.
If Nelson protects the football and UTEP avoids special teams breakdowns, this game sets up well for a one-possession finish favoring the underdog.
Considering all of this, UTEP should not only cover the 1.5-point spread but also have a legitimate chance to win outright. Given the market movement and defensive advantages, I like the Miners to do just that.
Pick: UTEP +1.5 (Play to PK)
