The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Jonesboro, Arkansas, on Thursday, Nov. 20. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Arkansas State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Louisiana, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54 total points.
Here’s my Louisiana vs. Arkansas State prediction and college football picks for Thursday, November 20.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State Prediction
- Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Pick: Under 54
My Arkansas State vs. Louisiana best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State Odds
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 54 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 54 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- Louisiana vs Arkansas State Spread: Arkansas State -2.5, Louisiana +2.5
- Louisiana vs Arkansas State Over/Under: 54 Points
- Louisiana vs Arkansas State Moneyline: Louisiana +120, Arkansas State -140
Louisiana vs Arkansas State College Football Betting Preview
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Betting Preview: Don't Count on Defense
Following up last year's eight-win Sun Belt runner-up team wasn't an easy task. But the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have failed to meet preseason expectations in nearly every way.
Rather than contending for a spot in the conference title game, 4-6 Louisiana is clinging to a two-game win streak that has kept its bowl aspirations alive.
A seat at the postseason table isn't unfathomable, but Louisiana will have to pull off an outright upset this week to set up a Week 14 do-or-die game against ULM.
When transfer quarterback Walker Howard went down with a season-ending injury, Louisiana's offense appeared to be in disarray.
But when it turned to Lunch Winfield (yes, Lunch Winfield), the Cajuns started to find a more consistent rhythm and a new offensive identity. Winfield is a dynamic athlete, rushing for over 100 yards three times in his last six games and scoring seven touchdowns.
Winfield combined for five of those rushing scores and accounted for 10 total touchdowns in 54- and 42-point outings against Marshall and Texas State, respectively.
But he also accounted for three turnovers and no scores in a 22-10 loss to Southern Miss. The ceiling is there, but the floor tanks this team.
Louisiana's defense has been the real liability this season. It ranks 109th in Points Per Drive allowed and 129th in Success Rate allowed through 12 weeks. James Madison held itself to 24 points (three turnovers), and middling offenses like Eastern Michigan and Troy found themselves 34 and 35 points, respectively.
When the Ragin' Cajuns won, it was largely due to their offense scoring enough points to stave off their opponents (see: a 42-39 win over Texas State in Week 11).
Teams run the ball with ease against the third-worst run defense in the country in terms of Rushing Success Rate, and Louisiana can't get off the field on third downs. That leads to the defense being on the field for entirely too long.
In fact, Louisiana ranks 111th in time of possession percentage (just shy of 48%).
But that's also due to the offense's occasional ability to move the ball downfield with explosive plays. Thirteen of Winfield's 109 rushing attempts this season have gone for at least 10 yards, and his legs open up explosive runs for his backfield counterparts, Bill Davis (560 yards) and Zylan Perry (602 yards), who have combined for 35 rushes of 10-plus yards.
Ultimately, this team hasn't put many complete games together. That's led to a season that's holding on by a string but could result in four straight wins and a bowl berth.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview: Up-and-Down Offense Defines Season
Arkansas State has been one of the streakier teams in the country, losing its first four games against FBS foes before winning its next four. The Red Wolves put up a good fight against first-place Southern Miss, losing by a score of 27-21 at home.
Watching this team play is like playing EA College Football 26 when you hit the button to "even teams." Arkansas State has played in five one-score games against teams that range from 39th in aggregate industry power ratings (Iowa State) to 107th (South Alabama). It also has a loss to 131st-ranked ULM.
Ultimately, this is an offense that largely fails to do its part in winnable games. Arkansas State ranks 104th in Points Per Drive, and its three highest-scoring outputs of the season look like this:
- 42 against Southeast Missouri (92nd-ranked FCS scoring defense)
- 34 against Georgia Southern (129th in FBS Points Per Drive allowed)
- 31 against Texas State (124th)
Pretty much any team that fields a somewhat comprehensive defense holds the Red Wolves under 30 points.
To beat Arkansas State, opponents simply need to score 24 points.
But that's easier said than done against a defense that ranks about middle of the pack in Points Per Drive allowed. The Red Wolves allow a quality drive on roughly 42% of opposing possessions (71st), and special teams help this squad win the field-position game.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor never really panned out from the flashes shown early in his playing career. That's despite having one of the better receivers in the Sun Belt — if not among the better in the country — in Corey Rucker.
But when the entire offense is just these two — Arkansas State ranks 109th in Rushing Success Rate, and Rucker commands 22.3% of all targets — it's a fairly easy approach to stop.
Teams take their chances with Chauncy Cobb (who has no touchdowns despite 79 targets) and Hunter Summers (averages a paltry 2.2 yards after catch).
Rucker has been a frustratingly inefficient target for Raynor. His 1.56 yards per route run ranks fourth on Arkansas State alone.
Predicting Arkansas State's performance has been tricky this year, but you can rely on two things: (1) a close game and (2) not a ton of points scored by the Red Wolves.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
It's win-or-go-home time for Louisiana and an opportunity to secure its spot in the postseason for Arkansas State.
Should the Red Wolves win this game as -2.5 home favorites, they go bowling, and the Ragin' Cajuns lose a seventh game, eliminating them from a bowl spot.
Complicating things is a weather forecast that calls for heavy rain throughout the day and likely during this game. In the pros, light rain can reduce scoring by about two points per game, moderate rain by about four points and more for heavy rain, per Sharp Football Analysis. With a number still well into the 50s, this is a total I'm betting the under on.
But that's not just a blind weather bet; there's more to it than that.
Louisiana's offense struggles when it goes against top-half Sun Belt defenses. It scored 23, 14 and 10 against Troy (fourth in total defense), James Madison (first) and Southern Miss (sixth), though UL did find 31 against South Alabama (third).
Winfield is a do-or-die QB with a 13.3 aDOT, and in pouring rain, he's not going to find much success downfield. An 86th-ranked rushing attack simply isn't enough to offset what may not be available through the air.
Arkansas State moves at a clip, but with the season on the line, I anticipate that Louisiana plays keepaway the best it can.
Its defense is porous, though trending in the right direction after bye week adjustments. Limit opposing possessions and hope to capitalize on explosives to win the game.
Louisiana's defense fits the bill of a unit Arkansas State has scored on this year, but is it wise to bet over a point total where (a) only one team reliably can pull its weight, and (b) those offenses are playing in a rainstorm?
This total was already close given the matchup, but throw in potentially serious adverse weather, and an under bet is the only way to go.
Pick: Under 54
Louisiana vs Arkansas State Betting Trends
