The LSU Tigers take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, Tennessee. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Vanderbilt is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.
LSU vs Vanderbilt Prediction: Who Wins?
- LSU vs. Vanderbilt Pick: Vanderbilt -2.5
My Vanderbilt vs. LSU best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
LSU vs Vanderbilt Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- LSU vs Vanderbilt point spread: Vanderbilt -2.5
- LSU vs Vanderbilt over/under: 48.5 points
- LSU vs Vanderbilt moneyline: LSU +110, Vanderbilt -130
LSU vs Vanderbilt: What To Watch
LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Still Searching for Answers on Offense
The Tigers still have the blue-chip talent, but this season hasn’t lived up to the LSU standard offensively.
On paper, the defense is performing as expected: 30th in Defensive Success Rate, 14th in Finishing Drives allowed and 28th in Explosiveness allowed. They’re disruptive up front (36th in Havoc) and solid on third downs (37th), doing their part to keep LSU competitive.
The Tigers’ defense gives the offense plenty of opportunities (top-30 in defensive hard stops, 26th in field position), but the offense has struggled to convert that into points.
Garrett Nussmeier, who entered the season with high expectations, has been playing pretty decent ball. His 83.1 PFF grade is respectable and his underlying metrics are fairly aggressive.
He’s completing 76.8% of his passes, and his Average Depth of Target (7.9) and Big Time Throw Rate (6.3%) suggest that he's willing to push the ball.
Despite this profile and having elite talent around him, the offense ranks 96th in Explosiveness and 86th in Finishing Drives — poor numbers for a team with LSU’s roster.
The Tigers have also been among the least efficient on third down (93rd nationally) and have struggled to stay on schedule (58th in Success Rate). It’s not that Nussmeier is making catastrophic mistakes — his 3.4% turnover-worthy play rate is modest — but LSU’s passing game has lacked rhythm.
The lack of tempo (99th nationally) has compounded these problems, as the Tigers simply aren’t creating enough possessions to offset their inconsistency.
They also don't sustain possessions well enough, likely because they put themselves behind the sticks constantly, ranking 100th in Standard Down Rate.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Efficient & Balanced Attack
Vanderbilt has quietly become one of the most balanced, efficient teams in college football — and it all starts with its offense.
The Commodores rank second nationally in Offensive Success Rate, second in Finishing Drives and 11th in Havoc Allowed, meaning they stay on schedule, protect the football and consistently convert scoring opportunities.
They’re also 28th in Explosiveness, showing the ability to strike downfield when needed, and they rarely beat themselves, ranking 29th in penalties and 10th in average starting field position.
This offense doesn’t waste possessions — it stays ahead of the chains and capitalizes on short fields.
At the center of that attack is quarterback Diego Pavia, one of the most efficient passers in the country. Pavia owns an 85.1 PFF grade, having thrown for 1,409 yards and 14 touchdowns with just four turnover-worthy plays (4.1%).
He’s completing 78.7% of his passes, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, and takes sacks on only 2.2% of dropbacks.
Vanderbilt’s offense is built around that precision — high completion rates, clean pockets and consistent early-down execution.
It’s no coincidence the Dores have been able to move the ball well, pairing balance on the ground with elite passing efficiency. This attack has led them to get into standard downs at the 13th highest rate in the country.
While the defense has been slightly below average efficiency-wise (70th in Success Rate Allowed and 78th in Points Per Opportunity Allowed), there's one area where they should be able to make LSU uncomfortable: Havoc.
Vanderbilt ranks 11th in Total Havoc, while LSU ranks 83rd in Havoc Allowed. Expect Vanderbilt to get after Nussmeier.
LSU vs Vanderbilt Pick, Betting Analysis
I've had the privilege of writing for the Action Network for several years now. If you've read any of my articles before this you know there's one truth about Action Analytics: We're Brian Kelly haters.
This has all the makeup of a Kelly choke job. This one is on the road, with high stakes, featuring a good opponent and a good squad with several key weaknesses.
I expect Vanderbilt to pounce on the Tigers, force them in a bunch of third-and-long situations, get the ball in good field position and finish drives with touchdowns.
Give me the Commodores to cover the spread.
Pick: Vanderbilt -2.5
How To Watch LSU vs Vanderbilt
- Time: 12 p.m.
- TV Channel: ABC
- Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
