The Michigan State Spartans take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Iowa is favored by 16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. Michigan State, meanwhile, enters as a +16.5 underdog and is +575 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 42.5 total points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Iowa prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Michigan State vs Iowa Prediction
- Michigan State vs. Iowa Pick: Iowa -16.5
My Iowa vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan State vs Iowa Odds
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
- Michigan State vs Iowa Spread: Iowa -16.5, Michigan State +16.5
- Michigan State vs Iowa Over/Under: 42.5 Points
- Michigan State vs Iowa Moneyline: Michigan State +575, Iowa -850
Michigan State vs Iowa College Football Betting Preview
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: Rough Going in Conference Slate
Michigan State has had a tough year.
After starting the season with three straight wins, the Spartans have lost seven straight conference games by multiple scores. Their best win came over Boston College, and honestly, if those two teams played again this weekend, I would back the Eagles.
Nothing has really gone right for the Spartans this year.
Then, to make matters worse, in the era of NIL, they got hit with probation. The good news is that hopefully this closes the door permanently on what was one of the most disastrous coaching hires of the modern era. (Side note, I hope Mel Tucker got Kenneth Walker a very nice graduation present.)
There's just no nice way to say this: The Spartans are not a good football team.
They rank 103rd in PFF overall grade, with their offense ranking 102nd in PFF offensive grade and their defense ranking 100th in PFF defensive grade.
On defense, they're particularly vulnerable against the run, ranking 112th in Rush PPA/Play allowed and 120th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
This is why they allow opponents to get into short-yardage situations. That has led to a mark of 125th in standard play rate allowed.
Their offense has been a mess. They play slow (107th in tempo), can't stay on the field (114th in third-down conversion rate) and allow opponents to constantly force turnovers and pressure (131st in Havoc allowed).
This has not allowed them to build any sort of rhythm, as evidenced by scoring less than 20 points in each of in their last five games.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: Improved Offense Provides Hope
The first thing you need to understand about the Hawkeyes: This is not the Iowa offense from the Brian Ferentz days.
Iowa showed signs of improvement last year, improving from 131st in PFF offensive grade in 2023 to 32nd in 2024. This year, it's 15th in PFF offensive grade, indicating that the upswing is here to stay.
Unsurprisingly, this redemption was spurred on by the offensive line. The Hawkeyes rank fourth in PFF rush block grade, anchoring one of the better rushing attacks in the country.
Iowa runs the ball 13th-most in the country for a reason: it's very good at it. The Hawkeyes rank 19th in Rushing Success Rate and 37th in Rushing PPA/Play.
This focus on the run has allowed them to boast impressive advanced offensive metrics, including 32nd in Havoc allowed, 29th in Points Per Opportunity and 53rd in Offensive Success Rate.
These all factor into the reason why Iowa’s offense is so effective. It has the ability to stay ahead of the chains, ranking 16th in standard down rate.
The scary thing is, Iowa still has its great defense. The Hawkeyes rank 11th in PFF defensive grade, with impressive advanced metrics to back it up, including a rank of 34th in Success Rate allowed, 41st in Havoc, 45th in Points Per Opportunity allowed and second in explosiveness allowed.
This Iowa team is better than its record indicates.
Michigan State vs Iowa Pick, Betting Analysis
I mentioned that this Iowa team is better than its record indicates. Let's take a look at all of its losses:
- at then-No. 16 Iowa State, 16-13
- vs. then-No. 11 Indiana, 20-15
- vs. then-No. 9 Oregon, 18-16
- at then-No. 17 USC, 26-21
That's four losses to top-20 teams by a combined 14 points — just 3.5 per game. If one or two plays go differently, this Iowa team is squarely in College Football Playoff contention.
The Hawkeyes are also not afraid to run up the score, with four of their wins coming by 27 points or more. That includes a 37-0 win over Wisconsin, a team in a similar position as Michigan State.
The position? Rock bottom.
Iowa is going to roll Michigan State. The only question is, how many possessions will the Hawkeyes get? Don't be surprised to see another 20-plus win with the Spartans being held to single digits.
Pick: Iowa -16.5
Michigan State vs Iowa Betting Trends
