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When you think about Big Ten toughness and physicality, Iowa and Michigan are two of the first programs to come to mind. Both programs have spent decades playing with a smashmouth, run-first, and defensive-minded identity.
The similar styles have led to some low-scoring battles over the years, including a 10-3 Michigan victory in 2019.
Michigan has won four of the last five meetings and leads 45-15-4 all-time. With this year's matchup at the Big House, the Wolverines are favored at home and points are expected to be at a premium once again with the total sitting between 37 and 38 points.
Iowa has Ohio State next week, but a relatively manageable schedule afterwards. While some view Michigan as a 2-1 team, the Wolverines remain undefeated with a win over Oklahoma on its resume.
There's a case to be made that this game may be more important to Michigan with Penn State, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State still on the schedule. However, the winner of this game will add a top-25 win to its resume.
Let's look at my Michigan vs. Iowa picks and college football parlay for Saturday, September 26.
Michigan vs. Iowa Picks, Parlay
- JJ Buchanan 40+ Alt Receiving Yards
- Hank Brown Under 155.5 Passing Yards
- Michigan Moneyline
- Over 37.5
Parlay Odds: +569 (FanDuel)
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Michigan vs. Iowa Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
Michigan Player Prop: JJ Buchanan 40+ Receiving Yards (-270)
After accepting the head coaching job at Michigan, one of the first phone calls that Kyle Whittingham made was to JJ Buchanan to convince him to move cross-country with him.
Buchanan was underrated as a three-star recruit on the composite, but he was ranked as a four-star by 247sports and as the highest-rated recruit in Utah's 2025 class. He made an immediate impact for the Utes, with 26 receptions for 427 yards and five touchdowns as a true freshman.
He's hit the ground running in Ann Arbor as well. Buchanan was on the receiving end of Michigan's controversial 47-yard game-winning Hail Mary touchdown against Western Michigan.
He finished that game with six catches for 126 yards while going for 92 yards and a touchdown on seven catches last week against UTEP. Dating back to last season, Buchanan has recorded 40 yards or more in eight of his last 10 games while averaging 61.5 yards per game in that span.
Buchanan has emerged as a favorite target for Bryce Underwood and is leading the team in receiving despite the presence of fellow talented sophomore Andrew Marsh, who Michigan finally got going last week.
While I still consider Marsh as Michigan's WR1 from a talent perspective, his presence makes it difficult to hone in on Buchanan as the singular target in Michigan's passing game.
Three or four catches should help Buchanan get 40 yards once again.
Iowa Player Prop: Hank Brown Under 155.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Iowa has scored 40 points in two of its first three games, but it hasn't exactly been because of the play of its quarterback.
Hank Brown has been efficient, completing 72.6% of his passes and has yet to throw an interception. However, he's also failed to throw for 155 yards in two of his first three games.
It's worth mentioning that two of those games were blowouts and he wasn't needed much in the second half. However, he'll face his toughest test this week.
Michigan has been known for its elite defense in recent years and that doesn't appear to be changing under Whittingham.
The Wolverines are giving up just 123.7 passing yards per game, eighth-fewest in the FBS. They rank 10th in passing success rate allowed and fifth in passing explosiveness allowed on passing downs.
Two of Michigan's first three opponents have thrown for less than 100 yards and its defensive line has been working in concert with its secondary. Per Pro Football Network, Michigan has the highest-graded defensive line in the country.
The group has 10 sacks already, led by Utah transfer and All-American candidate John Henry Daley, Nate Marshall and Dominic Nichols, who each have two or more.
Nichols is questionable for this week, but I wouldn't expect the unit to miss a beat with freshmen Carter Meadows and Tariq Boney in the mix.
Meanwhile, Jyaire Hill, Zeke Berry, Smith Snowden, Shamari Earls, Chris Bracy and Rod Moore Jr. are making a case that they're the best secondary in the country. It was Hill who flipped the Oklahoma game with an interception and 24-yard return to set up the game-winning touchdown.
Michigan plays a lot of man coverage, which Iowa wide receiver Tony Diaz is looking forward to. However, the Hawkeyes may be without tight end DJ Vonnahme.
If Michigan doesn't have to worry about him in the middle of the field, it can focus on shutting down Diaz, and that will make things more difficult for Brown to clear his over as well.
Moneyline Pick: Michigan ML (-205)
As a Michigan alum, I'll be the first to tell you that the Big House isn't a particularly hostile place to play, but that doesn't mean it's easy to walk out with a win either.
Over the last five-plus years, Michigan is 35-3 at home. The three losses were all against teams who went on to play in the College Football Playoff.
As mentioned, Michigan has controlled this series of late, as it's won four of the last five meetings. In those games, Iowa hasn't scored over 14 points and was held to three points or less in three of the five.
This will be the first meeting between the programs since Jim Harbaugh went back to the NFL, but Michigan looks like it has another elite defense. Through its first three games, Michigan is allowing 13 points and 220 total yards per game.
Meanwhile, this will be the road start of Brown's career.
He hasn't been sacked yet and has been hit just twice overall. That is a credit to Iowa's offensive line, which PFN rates as the No. 4 unit in the country to this point. It'll be a strength-on-strength matchup in the trenches, but Michigan will get home at some point to disrupt Brown and Iowa's offense.
Michigan's own offense has left a lot to be desired at this point, but I like it to do just enough offensively to come out with a win.
It may even get some help from its defense in the scoring department.
Over/Under Pick: Over 37.5 (-130)
When I look at the history between these teams, how Michigan has looked offensively, and how Iowa typically is offensively, this game has 13-7 written all over it.
Michigan already has 13-12 and 17-10 victories this season, while Iowa defeated Iowa State 16-13 in the Cy-Hawk Trophy game. Yet, the total has trended upward this week and sits at 38.5 as of this writing.
Michigan did break out offensively for 52 points last week, but Iowa's defense poses a far more difficult task than UTEP. However, one of the main reasons I like the over this week is the turnover potential between both of these teams.
Underwood has fumbled in each of his first three games and Michigan has committed six turnovers thus far. Iowa has a history of scoring on defense over the last few years, so that'll be something to monitor.
Last week, true freshman Savion Hiter fumbled and set up UTEP with a short field that it cashed into a touchdown. However, Michigan added a defensive touchdown of its own when defensive tackle Jonah Lea'ea picked off a screen pass and returned it nine yards for a touchdown.
While last week's game had already gone over, 14 points from a defensive score or directly off a turnover will flip a lot of totals, particularly when it's under 40 like this week's matchup.
One defensive score this week may be enough to a turn a 17-14 game into a 24-14 game and be just enough to get over this line.
Additionally, seven of the last 10 meetings between these two have had 40 points or more.
Iowa vs. Michigan Same-Game Parlay
- JJ Buchanan 40+ Alt Receiving Yards
- Hank Brown Under 155.5 Passing Yards
- Michigan Moneyline
- Over 37.5
Parlay Odds: +569 (FanDuel)
