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The Kent State Golden Flashes take on the Bowling Green Falcons in Bowling Green, Ohio, on Tuesday, Nov. 10. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Bowling Green is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Kent State, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +168 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here’s my Kent State vs. Bowling Green prediction and college football pick for Tuesday, November 10.
Kent State vs Bowling Green Prediction
- Kent State vs. Bowling Green Pick: Kent State +6 or Better
My Bowling Green vs. Kent State best bet is on the Flashes to cover a short spread on the road. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Kent State vs Bowling Green Odds
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +168 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
- Kent State vs Bowling Green point spread: Bowling Green -5.5 (-110), Kent State +5.5 (-110)
- Kent State vs Bowling Green over/under: 44.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Kent State vs Bowling Green moneyline: Kent State +168, Bowling Green -205
Kent State vs Bowling Green College Football Preview
Kent State Golden Flashes Betting Preview: Seeing Stars
The last time Kent State played, it found itself on the losing end of a big upset at Sacramento State.
That loss gave Sac State its first win against an FBS foe since joining the league this season. Kent had the game fairly under control (it was still favored late in the third quarter) until five turnovers flipped the script, sending the Flashes home with an embarrassing 31-10 defeat.
There have been a handful of significant issues for this team. Turnovers take the top spot, but an inability to score in the red zone is almost as disastrous.
Kent State went 0-for-3 finding a touchdown inside Sac State's 20, and on the season, it ha scored touchdowns on just 39% of red zone trips, seventh-worst in the country.
Only Old Dominion fields a worse per-play offense than Kent State this season.
The only thing saving the Flashes from that bottom spot is the occasional pop from a passing explosive, highlighted by Dru DeShields' 92-yard touchdown to Wayne Harris last game.
But this team has absolutely no push up front and no juice from its roster offensively.
Physical football teams with relatively equal roster talent frustrate this team. Against USF, Kent State was held scoreless offensively (it lost 29-2, saved only by a safety); Western Michigan stifled it to just seven points and Sac State held it to three after that first-quarter breakaway score.
While varying in quality, all three are very physical teams up front.
Kent State is still alive for a bowl game, though it would need some big upsets to score a bid. Remaining on the schedule are Bowling Green (away), Miami (home) and Eastern Michigan (away).
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Can't Stop a Nosebleed
Early October's two-game win streak over reeling Miami and bottom-feeder Sacramento State has been all the positives found in this season for Bowling Green.
Since then, BG is 0-3 with an epic collapse against Ball State (at home), a loss to Buffalo despite leading in per-play Success Rate, and a disappointing 23-10 loss to Western Michigan.
The Falcons are 2-7 on the season with no glimmer of hope for improvement.
I've been pretty public about my thoughts on offensive coordinator Greg Nosal, who was hired seemingly because BG ran out of options. Though quarterback Jay Kastantin has improved slightly and plays more freely, offensive success was short-lived.
Play selection has been a bit more intentional with the Division-II transfer, which led to 29.3 points per game over a four-game stretch — compared to 33 total points over its first four — before that WMU dud.
But as a trade-off, BG's defense hasn't kept pace.
It slipped several times against a terrible Buffalo offense and then crumbled at the end, culminating in a busted coverage as the final seconds ticked off the clock, surrendering the tie and sending the game to overtime.
Head coach Eddie George is now 0-for-2 in making a bowl game at a program that expects at least a bid. Attendance and revenue are way up, but on-field success is down.
How the athletic staff handles George in the near future will tell us plenty about which of those two things it values most.
Kent State vs Bowling Green Pick, Betting Analysis
The battle for the Anniversary Award has been pretty one-sided in favor of Bowling Green. The Falcons lead the rivalry, 62-25-6, and have won two of the last three games after dropping five straight from 2018-22.
Last year's game was a 24-21 comeback win for Kent State, which entered the game as a +8.5 'dog and effectively ended BG's bowl bid (it would go on to lose the next three straight, twice as a favorite).
Bowling Green opened up a -5.5 favorite, a number that ticked up to -6. The total in this game has waffled on either side of 45, a number of note in college football totals betting (and the number the game landed on last year).
Throughout the season, the strength of Bowling Green has come on defense ("strength" used exceptionally liberally here; it's not a strong unit by national comparison).
Defensive tackle Eriq George is playing at an all-conference level with six tackles for a loss over his last five games. The secondary is still pretty stout, and third-down defense has been a particularly successful aspect.
We're getting Kent State at a discount given the disastrous game it just showed us. But against opponents like Akron and Ball State, the Flashes are capable of winning.
This is a coaching staff familiar with BG and playing on the road at Doyt Perry Stadium — it's nothing like traveling across the country to play Sac State.
Kent State might even be the superior team here. There's a huge inflow of money on Kent to win this game outright. Bowling Green is completely out of things to play for with seven losses, while Kent is holding on to a lifeline with six losses.
Pick: Kent State +6 or Better
Kent State vs Bowling Green Betting Trends
