If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Pac-12 play is heating up, as Texas State has two consecutive road covers against Boise State and Oregon State. The outright underdog victory for the Bobcats over the Beavers in Week 10 moved the Early Pick of the Week to 7-2 on the season.
This week, the column turns its attention to the American, where a leading contender goes on the road to cover a possession spread.
Let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Memphis vs. USF in Week 11 below. For more college football picks and analysis, download the Action Network app today.
College Football Picks for Memphis vs. USF
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +168 |
Memphis comes off a much-needed bye week after losing at Tulane and struggling to put East Carolina away.
The Tigers have had issues stopping the run, with a rank of 98th in Line Yards and 117th in Stuff Rate. Explosives have been the biggest issue for head coach Charles Huff's defense, as Memphis is one of the few FBS teams to allow multiple rush attempts of at least 50 yards.
The Tigers currently rank as a bottom-20 team in Rush EPA allowed, so South Florida should find success.
The Bulls offense has been run-heavy this season, using a lot of of outside zone read with a mix of counter. Head coach Brian Hartline has predominantly used the run concept with 12 personnel, generating a high 56% Success Rate with two tight ends.
Running back DJ Crowther has been the bell-cow in the backfield, forcing 57 missed tackles on the season.
Memphis has struggled to contain the rush all season, specifically against teams using zone read.
The Tigers have a poor 41% Success Rate against outside zone, a number that stays low with the usage of 12 personnel. That number sinks to a 37% Success Rate when seven or more players are in the box on offense pre-snap.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for South Florida to be an underdog of less than a field goal, giving an edge to the current number in the market.
Look for the slow tempo and outside zone to be the advantage for the Bulls over the Tigers on Thursday Night Football.
Pick: USF +6
