The Missouri State Bears take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the 2025 Xbox Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 18. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arkansas State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -118. Missouri State, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is -102 on the moneyline to pull off the small upset. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 54.5 total points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. Arkansas State prediction and college football picks for Thursday, December 18.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State Prediction
- Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Pick: 1H Over 26.5
My Arkansas State vs. Missouri State best bet is on both teams to go over the first-half total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 54.5 -112o / -108u | -102 |
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 54.5 -112o / -108u | -118 |
- Missouri State vs Arkansas State Spread: Arkansas State -1.5, Missouri State +1.5
- Missouri State vs Arkansas State Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Missouri State vs Arkansas State Moneyline: Missouri State -102, Arkansas State -118
Missouri State vs Arkansas State Xbox Bowl Preview
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: Shaving Off a Key Piece
Head coach Ryan Beard is off for Coastal Carolina and won’t coach the Xbox Bowl. His staff, including offensive coordinator Nick Petrino, remains in place for the game, and Petrino is the interim.
Importantly, quarterback Jacob Clark will play in the game, his last in a Missouri State uniform.
Several players, including two team captains, are in the transfer portal. All of them, except receiver Tristian Gardner (who led Conference USA freshmen receivers in yardage) and safety J.J. O’Neal (who left the team early in the year on a redshirt), will suit up and play.
Like its CUSA counterpart, Delaware, Missouri State received a bowl bid in its first year in the FBS due to a shortage of six-win teams. Winning that bowl in Year 1 could be a source of pride for the program.
While many programs (like your Michigans and Miamis) leave bowl trophies in the back closet, mid-level programs like Missouri State use these as proud recruiting tools. For example, Buffalo keeps its Myrtle Beach Bowl trophy front and center in its football welcome center, where it accepts all recruits.
That’s to say, you’re going to get strong effort from the Bears here.
Coming into the year, defense was the primary concern for Missouri State. But for most of the season, that unit exceeded expectations.
However, it also fell apart over its last two games, surrendering 83 points to both Kennesaw State and Louisiana Tech. But earlier efforts, like holding SMU to 28 and Western Kentucky to 27, showed real competence.
It’s a defense that keeps everything in front of it, ranking inside the top 30 nationally in explosive play rate allowed. That also means underneath is available for opposing offenses, as the Bears checked in at 93rd in Success Rate allowed.
Offensively, Clark is one of the best QBs in Conference USA. He has both the physicality (stands 6-foot-5) and spreads the ball around (five players have 25-plus targets).
But he’s also not overly mobile, having taken 37 sacks this season, which ties him for the fourth-most.
Clark suffered an injury earlier in the season, but he has looked healthy lately and has said he'll play in this game.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview: Strength on the D-Line
After a 1-4 start, Arkansas State managed to rattle off five wins in its final seven games to clinch a bowl berth. During that run, the Red Wolves picked up a win over Troy (which made the Sun Belt Championship) and went 3-1 in one-score games.
This year marks three bowls in a row for Arkansas State, a milestone only otherwise accomplished between 2011-19 with a string of impressive coaches in Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin and Blake Anderson.
This team's coach, Butch Jones, split each of his last two bowls.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor was expected to take a massive step forward this season after showing promise over the last two years, but those results have been middling. Raynor threw for over 3,000 yards but also recorded 11 interceptions.
Turnovers have been the bane of Arkansas State’s 2025 season.
Otherwise decent ball movement (the Red Wolves sit 43rd in Success Rate) has been marred by the seventh-most turnovers in the country. Over their last three games, the Red Wolves gave the football away 11 times, including six against Southern Miss in Week 12.
Arkansas State heads to Frisco, possibly without a key piece on the offensive line. Guard Tristian Smith — likely the best player on the line, if not the entire offensive unit — missed the final three games, a stretch where Arkansas State went 1-2.
The strength of this team lies in the defensive line.
Eathan Hassler and Demarcus Hendricks combined for 13 sacks and 22 tackles for loss this season. Those negative plays have led to a 42% Success Rate on late downs.
But that works both ways.
Raynor has taken 32 sacks this season, seventh-most in the country. That’s due in part to the sheer number of plays Arkansas State runs (76 per game is third-most) but also due to Raynor’s tendency to extend plays, plus a subpar offensive line.
The bottom line is, the team runs through Raynor. He’s the most-used player in college football, with 620 logged touches (41 more than second place).
When Raynor doesn’t hit his stride, or when he’s turning the football over, Arkansas State really struggles. It’s been held to 21 or fewer points in half of its games.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
This year’s Xbox Bowl — a replacement for the canceled Bahamas Bowl — is played in Frisco, Texas, at The Star, the Cowboys’ indoor practice facility. The Star hosts Texas high school playoff games and is a premier 12,000-seat venue.
Missouri State opened as a +2.5 underdog in the game but moved to +1.5 with moneylines around even. The over/under opened at 58.5 but fell to 54.5 points.
Both teams are mostly healthy and will carry full rosters into the game.
The juice has largely been squeezed out of betting under the total.
These are two teams whose offenses depend on excellent quarterback play, and both quarterbacks throw interceptions. Both offensive lines allow sacks, too, and Missouri State is also a highly penalized team with a poor late-down Success Rate.
But over the last few games, Missouri State has fallen apart defensively in the second half. Holding an under ticket — especially after betting into a mature line — isn’t going to be an enjoyable sweat.
Instead, I’m looking to buy back the other way early in the game.
Both teams went over this first-half total in each of their last two games. The Bears offense has gotten off to hot starts, and the defense has allowed opposing offenses to do the same.
I expect both teams to put forth a strong effort in this game. Both coaches are offensive-minded, and Missouri State gets the interim bump under Petrino. We have full participation and a projected close game. It’s also the final showing for Clark and multiple transfer candidates.
This game features an indoor facility, two unfamiliar yet neighboring state programs, and a weird bowl that was seemingly thrown together at the last minute. What could go wrong?
Pick: 1H Over 26.5 (Play to 27.5)
