The Missouri State Bears take on the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces, N.M., on Wednesday, Oct. 22. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Missouri State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. New Mexico State, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is +100 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. New Mexico State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, October 22.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction
- Missouri State vs. New Mexico State Pick: Under 51.5
My New Mexico State vs. Missouri State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +100 |
- Missouri State vs New Mexico State Spread: Missouri State -1.5, New Mexico State +1.5
- Missouri State vs New Mexico State Over/Under: 51.5 Points
- Missouri State vs New Mexico State Moneyline: Missouri State -120, New Mexico State +100
Missouri State vs New Mexico State College Football Betting Preview
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: Will Clark Be Ready?
Missouri State enters this midweek clash looking to build on flashes of progress under freshman quarterback Deuce Bailey, who started last game against Middle Tennessee.
However, the numbers tell a story of an offense that struggles to sustain drives and find its rhythm. That's why the biggest news heading into the game is whether or not starting quarterback Jacob Clark is going to suit up, which will change the dynamic of the offense's identity.
Why is he so important? Well, the Bears rank 46th nationally in EPA Per Pass at +0.14. However, it’s not enough to offset their issues on the ground, where they sit at −0.13 EPA Per Rush, 126th in the country.
Although Bailey has shown flashes of ability, Clark's presence will make a significant difference in the passing game.
The offensive imbalance has made them overly predictable on early downs, even though their early downs EPA Per Play mark comes in at 42nd in the country.
When they fail to stay ahead of the chains, the results are ugly. Missouri State is converting just 32.9% of its third and fourth downs — 132nd nationally — and faces an average third-down distance of 9.31 yards, the fourth-worst mark in FBS.
That makes it incredibly difficult to sustain drives.
Those numbers explain why Missouri State’s available yards gained percentage is only 43.4% (97th). That's not going to get the job done, even against the bottom of the barrel in the Group of Five.
I have a feeling Clark isn't going to play, which doesn't give me confidence that the offense can stay ahead of the chains.
It's also a massive mismatch against NMSU's rush defense, so there could be a lot of offensive inefficiency from the Bears on Wednesday evening.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Defense Better Than Expected
Meanwhile, New Mexico State’s profile is remarkably similar, which is not a good thing.
The Aggies offense ranks 55th in EPA Per Pass, but they can't run the ball if their lives depended on it, sitting at 133rd in EPA Per Rush.
They rack up just 39.6% of available yards per game, which shows that, even though their scoring drives are typically methodical, they lack explosiveness.
Their early downs EPA Per Play comes in at 132nd in the nation, a true indication that they’re not finding positive plays on first and second down.
It's safe to say I don't have any confidence in the offense, despite pulling off a big upset against Liberty last week.
New Mexico State’s biggest strength lies in its defense, which has quietly played better than its overall record suggests.
The Aggies are 76th in EPA Per Pass allowed, but their run defense is elite on a per-play basis, ranking eighth nationally with a -0.19 EPA Per Rush allowed.
That’s an important matchup edge against a Missouri State ground attack that can’t generate consistency. On early downs, the Aggies allow just -0.05 EPA Per Play (48th), and their defense forces a lot of long third-down attempts.
NMSU’s defense is allowing conversions on 45.8% of attempts on late downs, but given how often it forces third-and-longs, those numbers inflate slightly due to field position. This is a matchup where possession control matters more than tempo.
The Aggies are also dealing with a rash of injuries on defense that has forced depth players into starting roles.
What I take out of the injury report is that their role players will continue to fill in, but they have done a decent job overall. With Clark trending toward being out for Missouri State, I have faith the Aggies can maintain their bend, don't break defensive approach at home.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State Pick, Betting Analysis
Everything about this matchup — the stats, the personnel and the tempo — points to a slower, lower-scoring game.
Neither offense ranks inside the top 40 in any explosiveness metric, and both rank in the bottom half of the nation in third-down offense and available yards gained.
Missouri State’s inability to run the ball or convert third downs consistently creates a recipe for empty possessions and punts.
New Mexico State isn’t equipped to turn those stops into instant offense either, considering its rushing attack ranks 133rd in EPA Per Rush, and its early downs EPA mark sits near the bottom of the nation.
Expect a contest defined by field position, conservative play-calling and defenses that force long drives to score. Both teams have shown limited explosive ability and a tendency to stall once they pass midfield.
I haven't put a lot of stock into New Mexico State's win over Liberty last week. I think the offense has performed way above its head.
This total will continue to tick down once Clark is officially ruled out, so I'm going to lock it in before it dips below the key number of 51.
Pick: Under 51.5
