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Maryland vs NC State Odds, Picks: 1 Bet for Friday’s Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Maryland vs NC State Odds, Picks: 1 Bet for Friday’s Duke’s Mayo Bowl article feature image
Credit:

G Fiume/Getty Images and David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured from left: Taulia Tagovailoa (3) of the Maryland Terrapins and Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (0) of the NC State Wolfpack.

Maryland vs NC State Odds

Friday, December 30
Noon ET
ESPN
Maryland Odds
Spread Over/Under Moneyline
+1
-109
45
-113o / -108u
-104
NC State Odds
Spread Over/Under Moneyline
-1
-112
46
-113o / -108u
-117
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

It’s finally here, ladies and gentlemen. It’s time for the greatest bowl game of the season: The Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

Some teams play for a National Championship or the Leishman Trophy or a bowl of oranges. But NC State’s Dave Doeren and Maryland’s Mike Locksley will compete for the prize of having a giant four-and-a-half-gallon bucket of watered-down mayonnaise dumped on their head.

Personally, I find mayo repulsive and think it should be the loser who has it dumped on his head, but I digress.

Doeren led his NC State team to an 8-4 record, and while the record is disappointing given its preseason expectations, it was also pretty impressive considering all of the injuries Wolfpack had to overcome.

Locksley and Maryland finished the year 7-5, clinching back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2013-14.

Both teams limped to the finish line and have lost two of their past three games. Both teams have key opt-outs. So, with uncertainty on both sides, who has the advantage and gets the “reward” of a mayonnaise bath?


Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa took a bit of a step backward this season. He threw just 17 touchdowns — a year after tossing 26 — with six interceptions.

His turnover-worthy play rate went up, and his big-time throw percentage dropped. However, he did maintain the second-best completion percentage in the Big Ten.

Tagovailoa is aided by the NFL wide receivers in Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus and Jacob Copeland. Unfortunately for the Terps, all three have opted out.

Tagovailoa will still have Jeshaun Jones, as well as a pair of freshmen running backs in Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton. This offense finished just 75th in the country in Success Rate, though, and was very inconsistent.

Maryland was actually slightly better on defense this season. It ranked in the 50s in Success Rate on that side of the ball. Although, a lot of that came from the final game of the year when the Terrapins completely shut down Rutgers in a 37-0 victory.

This defense really struggles to generate a pass rush. It ranks in the bottom 10 in the country in pressure and gives teams all day to throw. The Terrapins will also be without their best defensive back in cornerback Deonte Banks. He leads the team in PBUs but has opted out.


The Wolfpack offense has dealt with a ton of injuries this season. Starting quarterback Devin Leary suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6. Backup Jack Chambers was ineffective. True freshman MJ Morris got the offense going, but then he went down as well.

Fourth-string quarterback Ben Finley started the final two games, but it seems Morris should be good to go for the bowl game.

In his three starts, Morris threw seven touchdowns with just one interception. He also added a score on the ground.

Second-leading receiver Devin Carter has opted out, but as of Thursday, leading receiver Thayer Thomas is set to play. Drake Thomas, his brother, is also planning to play and is the team’s leading tackler. So far, nobody on the Wolfpack defense has opted out.

NC State’s defense ranks seventh in the nation in Success Rate on defense. It sits top-15 against the rush and pass but was especially dominant against the run, finishing sixth in the country.

Thomas and fellow linebackers Isaiah Moore and Payton Wilson are terrific against the run, and cornerbacks Aydan White and Shyheim Battle are great in coverage.

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Maryland vs NC State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and NC State match up statistically:

Maryland Offense vs NC State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 85 6
Line Yards 31 3
Pass Success 78 15
Pass Blocking** 36 55
Havoc 85 20
Finishing Drives 31 32
** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def)

NC State Offense vs Maryland Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 75 54
Line Yards 93 53
Pass Success 94 68
Pass Blocking** 28 120
Havoc 59 116
Finishing Drives 94 36
** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 49 40
PFF Coverage 24 68
SP+ Special Teams 10 8
Seconds per Play 27.2 (86) 26.3 (60)
Rush Rate 50.1% (92) 51.2% (85)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics

Maryland vs NC State Prediction & Pick

While Maryland has much more stability at the quarterback position, Tagovailoa will be without three of his best wide receivers in this game.

Tagovailoa has also made a habit over the past two years of lighting up bad defenses and struggling against good ones.

Tagovailoa Over the Past Two Seasons:

  • Versus Teams with Losing Records: 11 Games, 25 Touchdowns, 2 Interceptions
  • Versus Teams with Winning Records: 13 Games, 18 Touchdowns, 15 Interceptions

This NC State defense has been elite all season, ranking top-10 in the country in Success Rate. It has allowed more than 27 points just once and appears to be at full strength in this game.

The Wolfpack D is the best unit in this game by a wide margin, so it’s the group I’ll put my money behind.

The Wolfpack will also be highly motivated because of how mad they were last year when UCLA pulled out of the Holiday Bowl just hours before kickoff. The players wanted to play, and now they’ll get that chance.

Congratulations, Coach Doeren — you’ll receive the great reward of having four gallons of mayonnaise dumped on your head!

Pick: NC State -1.5 ⋅ Play to -2

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