All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Albuquerque, New Mexico, and San Antonio, Texas.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money you can win on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are three games I have circled for Week 14. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Friday, Nov. 28.
San Diego State vs New Mexico Pick
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
As Group of 5 fans, we know the biggest game of the weekend takes place in Albuquerque.
The winner of this game locks in a spot in the Mountain West Championship game, a massive turnaround for both programs.
San Diego State has had success behind its elite defense.
Sound familiar for the Aztecs? They rank seventh nationally in Success Rate allowed and have been utterly dominant. San Diego State has allowed 4.0 yards per play to opponents this season, third in the country.
You name it, they do it well.
The Aztecs sit in the top 15 against the run and the pass. They prevent explosives. They rank second nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Trey White is one of the best edge rushers in the country, and Owen Chambliss has been a tackling machine in the middle of the field.
On the back end, cornerback Chris Johnson has been fantastic and has the best Coverage Grade among all cornerbacks in the country, according to Pro Football Focus.
This defense is elite from back to front.
While the defense is the calling card, the offense is just fine, too.
The Aztecs run the ball at a top 10 rate behind back Lucky Sutton. He ranks ninth nationally with 1,127 yards this season and averages over 5.1 yards per carry.
Sutton stirs the drink on offense, but Jayden Denegal has done his part when asked. He is not the most prolific passer, but he can pick up enough big plays to keep teams from cheating against the run. San Diego State sits 12th nationally in passing explosives.
New Mexico is having a great season as well and does a lot of great things under Jason Eck, but the Aztecs' defense will be the best unit in this game by a wide margin.
San Diego State plays defense, runs the ball effectively, and picks up key explosives through the air. The Aztecs don’t turn the ball over and limit bad penalties.
Not only have the Aztecs rattled off nine wins this season, but they have also been throttling teams in victory. Their nine wins this season have come by an average margin of 22.8. Sean Lewis’s team is 9-2 against the spread this season, and 8-1 covering as a favorite.
Pick: San Diego State -2 or Better
UTSA vs Army Pick
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
It seems like every year, UTSA starts slow, takes a few weeks to find its footing, and ends the season playing its best football.
The Roadrunners have won four of their past six games, only losing to North Texas and South Florida.
They have also once again been dominant at home.
UTSA is 4-1 straight up and against the spread inside the Alamodome this season. They are averaging 464.8 yards and 50.2 points per game at home this year, compared to just 370.2 yards and 21.6 points per game on the road.
Quarterback Owen McCown leads an offensive attack that can put up points in a hurry, throwing for 25 touchdowns on the season. Devin McCuin is his favorite target, and AJ Wilson is the Roadrunners' downfield threat.
UTSA has two explosive running backs in Robert Genry and Will Henderson III, each of whom is averaging over seven yards per carry and can take it to the house any time they touch the ball.
The UTSA defense has been much better than last year, especially where it matters most for this game – against the run.
The Roadrunners sit 26th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. North Texas and South Florida were able to torch them on the ground, but they have held everybody else in check. Against Rice, who runs a similar Triple Option scheme to the new Army offense, UTSA allowed just 269 total yards and 13 points.
At the same time, Army has taken a massive step back from last year.
The Knights lost quarterback Dewayne Coleman to injur,y and Cale Hallums has been an effective rusher but can’t pass the ball. The Black Knights rank 81st nationally in Success Rate and are one of the least explosive teams in the country.
The Army defense has been terrible, ranking outside the top 100 this season. It's also awful against the pass — Army creates no pass rush and will allow McCown all day to pick this defense apart.
Pick: UTSA -8 or Better
