The Nevada Wolf Pack take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, NM, on Saturday, Oct. 18. Kickoff is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on FS1.
New Mexico is favored by 13 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. Nevada, meanwhile, comes in as a +13 underdog and is +375 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Nevada vs. New Mexico predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
Nevada vs New Mexico Prediction
- Nevada vs. New Mexico Pick: Under 49.5
My New Mexico vs. Nevada best bet is on this game to go under its point total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Nevada vs New Mexico Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- Nevada vs New Mexico Spread: New Mexico -13, Nevada +13
- Nevada vs New Mexico Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- Nevada vs New Mexico Moneyline: Nevada +375, New Mexico -500
Nevada vs New Mexico College Football Betting Preview
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: A True Mess
Winning football games in Reno is a massive challenge. Some coaches have been able to do it, but Jeff Choate isn't among those, now well into Year 2.
At 1-5, with half of those games being non-competitive, things aren't looking great for the 2025 Wolf Pack.
The offense is downright dire. Nevada ranks 134th in possession efficiency, and when the explosive plays aren't hitting, there's absolutely nothing to see when it has the ball.
Quarterback Chubba Purdy was benched after throwing seven interceptions to just one touchdown, but replacement Carter Jones hasn't gotten much more together, scoring just 17 points against Fresno State and 10 against San Diego State in his two starts.
Nevada hasn't scored 21 points all season, and its high of 20 came in a narrow win over FCS Sacramento State.
The offensive line generally isn't the problem, though starting guard Hadine Diaby sat last game out due to injury. His status is up in the air for Week 8.
Ultimately, this is just a turnover-ridden unit that has given the football away the fourth-most times in the entire country.
Nevada's biggest strength is its defensive line.
Dylan LaBarbera is a name to know, as he's piecing together an all-conference season behind 14 tackles for loss already. Running mate Jonathan Maldonado has five sacks of his own, making the pass rush duo among the Group of Five's best.
It's a decent unit, but the offense is also giving opponents extra scoring opportunities via turnovers.
The road ahead is arduous. Nevada still plays Boise State, San Jose State and UNLV before wrapping up the season.
The Wolf Pack are in contention for the worst spot in the Mountain West and among the country's worst when it comes to power rating.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Eck Leading the Way
New Mexico head coach Jason Eck should be in the conversation for Coach of the Year. Will he win it against the likes of Curt Cignetti, Joey McGuire or Tony Elliott? Unlikely, but taking a completely reset New Mexico team coming off its best season in a decade should at least put him in the outside conversation.
At 3-3, New Mexico is looking pretty good for a bowl spot, its first since 2016 (among the country's longest droughts). It's no fluke, either — New Mexico played admirably to start the year at Michigan with a dynamite game plan.
Last week, the Lobos hung with Boise State until the Broncos pulled away with 21 fourth-quarter points. This is simply a quality football team.
The offensive line has been a strength despite starting freshmen and sophomores. New Mexico's rushing attack started off strong but did peter a bit in two Mountain West games against San Jose State (35-28 loss) and Boise State (41-25).
Talented rushers like Scottre Humphrey, Damon Bankston and D.J. McKinney (all of whom have 200-plus rushing yards) always threaten for a long run.
Last week, quarterback Jack Layne was pulled after a 7-for-17, two-interception performance, but it doesn't appear that move is permanent moving forward.
However, New Mexico has a couple vulnerabilities, chiefly its secondary.
The unit was already subpar, but it suffers from a rash of injuries to both starters and depth pieces. There's teams on this schedule capable of taking advantage (UNLV and Air Force, of all teams), but Week 8 isn't one of them.
Linebacker Jaxton Eck (and son of coach Jason) is piecing together an all-conference season with 46 tackles (27 more than the next player) and 22 run stops, good for sixth-most in the Mountain West).
Nevada vs New Mexico Pick, Betting Analysis
New Mexico opened as a -10.5 favorite over Nevada, a number that crept up to -11.5. The over/under also bumped up from 48.5 points to 49.5.
This isn't Eck's first go-around against Nevada in his career. He beat the Wolf Pack while leading Idaho back in 2023, a 33-6 beatdown early in the season.
This game features two turnover-prone offenses. Nevada has given the ball away the fourth-most in the FBS, only to be out-done by New Mexico, which has turned it over second-most in the FBS.
Layne has nine interceptions thrown on the year but also eight touchdowns with high volume. He should still remain the starter for this game, though the leash may be shorter this week than entering the year.
Nevada not only fields one of the worst offenses in the nation but also one of the slowest-moving (102nd in seconds per play) — a deadly combination for a truly hard-to-watch unit.
New Mexico isn't much quicker, coming in about middle of the pack in plays and pace.
Aggregated industry power ratings suggest that Nevada is the side here, favoring New Mexico by about 8.5 points. Rather than take my luck with the offense, I'm looking to play under the point total.
Nevada's defensive line and pass rush are real strengths, and they're going up against the inexperienced, though talented, UNM offensive front.
Increased pressure leads to increased turnovers — or a change at QB if those turnovers prove to be too much — and either way, the total comes down to Nevada's ability to score. I seriously doubt that ability now six games into the season.
If New Mexico doesn't face the pressure and runs away with it, I'm not expecting it to cash the over by itself.
Pick: Under 49.5
Nevada vs New Mexico Betting Trends
