The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Liberty Flames in Lynchburg, Virginia, on Tuesday, Oct. 14. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -400. New Mexico State, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +325 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, October 14.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty Pick: Under 46.5
My Liberty vs. New Mexico State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
- New Mexico State vs Liberty Spread: Liberty -10.5, New Mexico State +10.5
- New Mexico State vs Liberty Over/Under: 46.5
- New Mexico State vs Liberty Moneyline: New Mexico State +325, Liberty -400
New Mexico State vs Liberty College Football Betting Preview
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Offense Problems Reaching Historic Levels
The 2025 New Mexico State Aggies field a historic run game, but it's historic in the wrong way.
Despite playing a cast of opponents that rank no higher than 95th nationally in the FBS, New Mexico State has yet to rush for 100 combined yards in a single game.
This absence of a run game bottomed out when it was outgained, 352-27, by Louisiana Tech and, 132-15, by New Mexico, resulting in a combined 87-34 score.
Losing starting center Kai Wheeler in Week 3 hasn’t helped much, though the rushing results have more or less remained the same since then. It’s truly a historically bad rushing attack.
The rest of the offensive line isn’t just subpar, it’s flat-out bad. Winning without a reliable offensive line is a tall task.
But able to run the ball or not, the Aggies carry a 3-2 record with victories over FCS Bryant, Tulsa (125th in FBS, per aggregate industry power ratings) and Sam Houston (130th).
If the level of intensity picks up at any point, NMSU could feasibly be in bowl contention come November.
An opportunistic defense has forced plenty of turnovers and held opponents to 14 or fewer points in all three wins. The Aggies rank 71st in points per drive, a marked improvement from last year (115th) and above much of Conference USA.
This comes without star linebacker Tyler Martinez, who missed the Sam Houston contest after leaving the New Mexico game with an injury. His status for Week 8 is up in the air.
Futures markets don’t seem to buy that NMSU is a real Conference USA contender, lining it as long as +6000 after Week 7 to win the title. It’s a reasonable assessment. It has a league loss to Louisiana Tech, and upcoming games with Western Kentucky and surprise candidate Kennesaw State are likely projected as two more.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Facing an Uphill Battle
Liberty certainly makes the short list of 2025 Disappointments.
At 2-4 with a conference loss to Jacksonville State, the preseason favorite Flames now eye odds at +800 and longer to win the CUSA crown.
Upcoming matchups with Delaware and Louisiana Tech prove to be huge pivots, should Liberty find a way to grab a pair of wins there.
Quarterback Ethan Vasko returned to the lineup for a 19-8 win at UTEP in Week 7. Vasko passed for 243 yards and ran in a touchdown, and Liberty remained turnover-free in the win.
But with or without Vasko, the offense has some significant problems.
Its high-water mark against an FBS opponent is 24 points, earned in a 34-24 loss to Jacksonville State earlier this season. An inconsistent rushing attack is the root of the problem, and it's a serious one in head coach Jamey Chadwell’s run-centric offense.
Standout running back Evan Dickens suffered a concussion in Week 5 and has not played since.
In his absence, two different running backs led the Flames in attempts and yards. Redshirt freshman Caden Williams went for 92 yards against Old Dominion, and sophomore Vaughn Blue ran for 75 yards against UTEP, which proved to be more of a bug than a feature of the offense.
The defense isn’t up to standard, either, after being heralded as one of the Group of Five’s best this offseason.
Teams with a pulse on the ground have moved the ball well against the Flames’ defensive front, and that has killed the clock. The additional turnovers lead to more clock being run, and Liberty’s offense sits 116th in points per drive.
With the Flames' truly awful offense, the defense has to do more lifting than most are capable of to propel this team to a 4-1 finish and bowl eligibility this season.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Pick, Betting Analysis
Liberty opened as a -7.5 favorite at home against New Mexico State, a number that quickly grew to -10.5. The point total, meanwhile, dipped from 48.5 to 46.5 points.
New Mexico State, though on the road, has six more days of rest than Liberty after sitting Week 7 out; its last game came on Thursday, Oct. 2, in a 37-10 win over Sam Houston.
While a rest advantage certainly helps, we’re approaching nearly two full weeks off and rest-versus-rust territory.
At NMSU, head coach Tony Sanchez is 0-3 outright and 1-8 in his coaching career coming off a bye week. While it’s true some of those byes came against bigger opponents and on the road — earlier this year, the bye preceded its rivalry with New Mexico, and last year, before a game at 9-5 Jacksonville State — Sanchez’s bye week woes shouldn’t be overlooked.
Liberty’s defense struggles against sturdy run games, which is something New Mexico State seriously lacks.
A combination of that bad run game and scheme has forced offensive coordinator David Yost’s hand to throw on 60% of offensive plays, the ninth-highest rate in the FBS.
The issue? That plays right into Liberty’s hand. The Flames rank 28th in Passing Success Rate allowed but 118th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
So, does NMSU try its hand at improving its historically bad run game against an atrocious run defense?
Perhaps. And if it does, that’s going to lead to some ugly drives.
Even though the total dipped a couple of points, it hasn’t gone low enough. Against a competent defense, NMSU managed 14 points. Liberty’s lack of an offense has led to 23-13, 19-8 and 21-7 rock fights in recent weeks.
Both offenses excel where the opposing defense does, too, so this could be some really ugly midweek CUSA action.
Pick: Under 46.5
