New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Prediction | Our Top Tuesday Pick

New Mexico State visits Louisiana Tech on Tuesday night for a Conference USA matchup.

The Aggies have racked up three consecutive league wins and enter this game at 5-3 overall and 3-1 in CUSA. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have lost four of their past five and are 3-5 in their second season under head coach Sonny Cumbie.

This line jumped out to me right away, and I feel it's a great spot to back the visiting underdog in this Tuesday night college football matchup.

After a season-opening loss to UMass, expectations lowered for head coach Jerry Kill’s team. However, NMSU is making another late-season surge, just as it did a season ago.

The Aggies have won and covered the spread in their past three CUSA games against FIU, Sam Houston and UTEP. In fact, Kill’s squad is riding a five-game streak of covering against the spread and sits at 6-2 ATS on the year.

The school now has a great opportunity to push for a place in the Conference USA Championship in its first year in the league.

One of the key reasons for this solid run has been quarterback Diego Pavia, who's tied for the most passing touchdowns in CUSA with 16.

With the defense also starting to play like the 2022 unit, Kill has built a solid program in his short time with the school.

Conversely, Cumbie is still trying to figure out his best quarterback option, as he's rotated between Jack Turner and Hank Bachmeier.

Bachmeier, a Boise State transfer, was impressive in relief in the loss to Middle Tennessee, completing 16-of-24 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown.

Regardless of who starts under center, there's no question who their top target will be. Receiver Smoke Harris is having another outstanding season and leads CUSA in receptions per game (7.4) to go along with 614 receiving yards and three scores.

Harris is the only FBS player with 2,000 receiving yards, 800 kickoff return yards and 600 punt return yards in his career. He’ll need to have another huge game here to give the Bulldogs a chance.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:

New Mexico State Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	5	81
Line Yards	2	75
Pass Success	52	20
Havoc	47	48
Finishing Drives	49	109
Quality Drives	41	75

Louisiana Tech Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	100	79
Line Yards	116	51
Pass Success	88	77
Havoc	109	42
Finishing Drives	73	77
Quality Drives	76	60

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	118	27
PFF Coverage	98	14
Special Teams SP+	72	81
Middle 8	43	62
Seconds per Play	30.6 (128)	27.1 (70)
Rush Rate	57.4% (32)	48.4% (100)

I feel oddsmakers have the wrong team favored, so I’ll take the Aggies on the moneyline at +120 at BetMGM and would play that to -120.

Bet New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech with the latest BetMGM bonus code.

It's clear that the weakest unit on the field is going to be Louisiana Tech’s defense, especially against the run. Only WKU allows more rushing yards per game than the Bulldogs in CUSA.

The LA Tech defense also ranks in the bottom 20 among non-Power 5 programs in both Rush PPA and rush explosiveness.

The Aggies are going to be able to expose the Bulldogs with a solid rushing attack that leads the conference with an average of 6.1 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, NMSU is also first among all non-Power 5 teams in multiple categories on the ground, including Rush Success, Rushing PPA and Line Yards.

Along with his passing ability, Pavia has been a great runner this year and leads the team with 527 rushing yards.

I was high on the Aggies coming into the year, and after the opening blunder, I like how they've come together in conference play. I don’t think we’ll get them as an underdog too many more times this season.