The New Mexico State Aggies take on the UTEP Miners in El Paso, Texas. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
UTEP is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 44.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. UTEP prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22, 2025.
New Mexico State vs UTEP Prediction
- New Mexico State vs. UTEP Pick: New Mexico State +3 (-110, bet365)
My UTEP vs. New Mexico State best bet is on PICK. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs UTEP Odds
| N. Mexico St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
- New Mexico State vs UTEP point spread: UTEP -3 (-110), New Mexico State +3 (-110)
- New Mexico State vs UTEP over/under: 44.5 (-110o / -110u).
- New Mexico State vs UTEP moneyline: New Mexico State +140, UTEP -165
New Mexico State vs UTEP Game Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Bounce Back Fade is a college football system that capitalizes on public overreaction to teams coming off a poor performance.
In conference play, when an opponent has just lost by more than three points and enters with only a one-game home or away streak, bettors often expect a strong rebound effort.
Oddsmakers know this tendency and may shade the line toward that team, creating hidden value on the other side.
By focusing on spreads between three and 16 points, the system captures games that are competitive enough for the line to matter but not so close that small swings decide the outcome.
In these situations, fading the supposed bounce-back team has historically delivered consistent returns, as motivation alone does not erase underlying weaknesses that caused the initial loss.
New Mexico State vs UTEP Pick
UTEP is reeling after three straight losses, but is it really worth betting on the Miners to bounce back?
The Miners can't move the football. They rank 134th nationally in EPA per Play and 130th in Success Rate.
UTEP has an elite defense (sixth nationally in EPA per Drive allowed, -0.78), but New Mexico State's defense is almost as good (14th, -0.48).
In what projects as a low-scoring grinder, I'll happily take the points.
While UTEP can't do anything on offense, the Aggies have a somewhat respectable, top-100 passing attack (94th in EPA per Dropback). Logan Fife has pieced together six 240-plus yard passing performances this year, and the Aggies pass at the seventh-highest rate nationally.
Fife's arm might be the difference in a game that should feature plenty of third-and-longs.
Additionally, New Mexico State has a far better special teams unit, which could swing this type of low-scoring, high-variance ballgame.
Pick: New Mexico State +3 (-110, bet365)
