North Dakota State vs Montana Pick, Odds: The Moneyline Bet to Make

It's time to take a look at the North Dakota State vs. Montana odds and make a prediction for Saturday's FCS Playoffs semifinal game.

North Dakota State lost to South Dakota, 24-19, in the regular season, and it appears that the Bison took that loss personally.

In the FCS quarterfinals, the Bison avenged their loss to the Coyotes with a 45-17 beatdown in Vermillion. North Dakota State now advances to the semifinals to face the No.2 Montana Grizzlies.

Montana was over a two-touchdown favorite against Furman but needed overtime to pull out a 35-28 victory. Surviving and advancing is the name of the game at this point in the season, but the Grizzlies will need to play their best football to take down the Bison.

North Dakota State and Montana have been two of the top programs in FCS over the last 15 years. They have each reached the FCS Semifinals 12 times and combined for 17 appearances in the FCS Championship.

North Dakota State holds a 6-4 edge in the series, but it's just 1-4 in Missoula. NDSU won the last two playoff meetings in blowout fashion, but this year's matchup is essentially a pick'em. Which side will prevail on Saturday afternoon?

North Dakota State is a team that wants to run the football and is one of the best in the country at doing so, ranking fourth in FCS with 241.8 rushing yards per game.

However, NDSU broke tendency a bit early on against South Dakota when quarterback Cam Miller was very aggressive taking shots downfield. He threw for only 210 yards but was efficient, averaging 14 yards per attempt.

The Bison jumped out to a 35-3 lead before their ground attack took over. They ran for 206 yards with three different players surpassing 50 yards, as they continue to employ a rushing attack by committee.

Running back TaMerik Williams leads the Bison with 715 rushing yards to go along with eight rushing touchdowns. Miller and fellow quarterback Cole Payton have each surpassed 500 yards on the ground this season as well. With three rushing touchdowns between them last week, Miller and Payton have 25 rushing touchdowns combined this season.

Sophomore receiver Eli Green was Miller's top target last week with five receptions for 116 yards, and he now has 779 receiving yards on 19.2 yards per catch on the season.

Last week, the Bison also put together a dominant effort on defense when they held South Dakota to only 52 yards rushing on 2.6 yards per carry. They intercepted USD quarterback Aidan Bouman three times after he entered the FCS quarterfinals with just four picks all season.

Linebacker Cole Wisniewski was responsible for two of those interceptions, and he now holds the North Dakota State single-season record with eight interceptions on the year.

The Bison lead the FCS with 21 interceptions this season and will be hungry for more.

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Last week, special teams were huge for Montana, as wide receiver Junior Bergen took the opening kickoff back 99 yards for a touchdown. In the fourth quarter, he returned a punt 59 yards for another score to give the Grizzlies a fourth-quarter lead. He also had four receptions for 44 yards on offense.

Bergen played a pivotal role in the victory, as the Grizzlies couldn't get much done offensively.

Running backs Eli Gillman and Nick Ostmo combined for just 21 yards on 19 carries. They had been one of the best duos in FCS this season, combining for 1,495 yards and 18 touchdowns as a thunder-and-lightning tandem, but couldn't get much going against Furman last week.

Montana ranks 17th in FCS in rushing yards per game, but running the ball against North Dakota State will be another challenge. That means the Griz will need to get something from the aerial attack.

Quarterback Clifton McDowell accounted for 326 yards (208 passing, 118 rushing) of Montana's 356 yards of offense last week. He assumed control of the position in late September and has not looked back since. This season, he has thrown for 1,701 yards, run for 734 yards and accounted for 21 total touchdowns against just three interceptions.

He has a quality group of wide receivers at his disposal as well. Bergen, Keelan White and Aaron Fontes each have at least 500 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season, while Ostmo has 19 receptions out of the backfield as well.

While Montana has McDowell on its side, it struggled with Furman's dual-threat quarterback, Tyler Huff. Huff was inaccurate at times but managed 188 yards passing with a touchdown and interception. He also had a 53-yard touchdown run as a part of his 71 yards on the ground.

In North Dakota State's Miller and Payton, Montana will have two dual-threat quarterbacks to worry about this week — perhaps even at the same time for a few snaps.

However, Montana's defense ranks 18th in FCS in total defense. It;s better against the run, ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed per game and allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.

It's just 65th against the pass but also ranks fifth nationally with 16 interceptions. Junior cornerback Trevin Gradney leads the team with five interceptions this season.

At this stage of the season, the four best teams in the country are the only ones left standing, and these FCS semifinals feature strength-on-strength matchups on both sides of the ball.

While I expect both teams to play their best games of the season, North Dakota State is the better team on both sides of the ball.

NDSU can attack Montana both with the run and pass, even if it leans into the pass a bit more this week given the matchup. However, the Bison won't stray from the run game for too long, and I expect them to be more effective running the ball in this game.

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The Bison did have a potential distraction with the announcement that head coach Matt Entz will be leaving to take over as the linebackers coach at USC. However, he will remain with the team through the end of the year.

Additionally, his players could be motivated to win for him or even carry a chip on their shoulders into this matchup because he's leaving.

Either way, I like the Bison to come out on top against the Grizzlies.

To be safer, you can take them at +1.5 on the spread, but I'll take the better odds with the moneyline here and roll with NDSU to reach the FCS Championship for the 13th time.

Pick: North Dakota State ML (-105)