North Dakota State vs South Dakota Odds & Pick: Bet the Under in Saturday’s Showdown

Let's jump into the North Dakota State Bison vs. South Dakota Coyotes odds and make a pick for Saturday afternoon's FCS Playoffs matchup.

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In a thrilling second-round victory, North Dakota State pulled off a 35-34 victory to knock Montana State out of the FCS Playoffs for the fourth time in five years.

Offensive lineman Hunter Poncius blocked the game-tying extra point in overtime to seal the victory. With the win, North Dakota State improved 10-3 and advanced to the FCS quarterfinals for the 14th consecutive year.

The Bison will take on No. 3 South Dakota, which advanced to the quarterfinals with a 34-24 win over Sacramento State.

It sets up a bit of a rarity in this matchup. This will be just the fifth true road game for North Dakota State in 51 FCS Playoff contests. At the same time, it will be just the fourth home playoff game for South Dakota.

South Dakota won the first meeting, 24-19, in Fargo to snap a six-game losing streak to the Bison. However, NDSU comes in as a 6.5-point road favorite to avenge its regular-season defeat.

Once again, North Dakota State has one of the best ground attacks in the country.

It ranks fourth in FCS, averaging 244 rushing yards per game. The Bison have six ball-carriers who have run for over 250 yards this season, led by running back TaMerik Williams' 657 yards. Williams ran for 162 yards of the Bison's 296 rushing yards last week, including touchdown scampers of 44 and 75 yards.

Meanwhile, quarterbacks Cam Miller and Cole Payton have combined for 22 rushing touchdowns this season.

Miller is also one of the most efficient passers in the country, completing 73.8% of his passes and throwing 17 touchdown passes against just four interceptions.

His top target has been receiver Zach Mathis, who has 44 receptions for 629 yards and six touchdowns. Receiver Eli Green leads the team with 663 receiving yards and averages 18.9 yards per catch.

In addition to opening up massive holes in the running game, North Dakota State's offensive line has allowed just 16 sacks.

Its advantage in the trenches extends to the other side of the ball, as well.

North Dakota State is outrushing its opponents by over 120 yards per game and it ranks 24th in FCS in rushing yards allowed per game.

The Bison defense is a little more vulnerable against the pass, allowing 183.4 yards per game. However, it's still 22nd in passing yards allowed per game and 13th in total defense overall.

Senior linebacker Cole Wisniewski is the standout of the group. He leads the Bison with 75 tackles, five passes defended and six interceptions.

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South Dakota has enjoyed quite the turnaround season, improving its win total by seven after going 3-8 last season.

Though it has made the playoffs for the third time in the last six years, South Dakota has won 10 games for the first time at the FCS level and has now earned its first trip to the quarterfinals.

Offensively, it has been led by the backfield duo of quarterback Aidan Bouman and running back Travis Theis.

Bouman has thrown 14 touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 67.3% of his passes. Theis, meanwhile, has run for 808 yards and six touchdowns on 4.7 yards per carry.

Wide receiver Carter Bell and tight end J.J. Galbreath each have five touchdown receptions. Bell leads the team with 47 receptions for 829 yards.

The Coyotes are not as dynamic offensively as North Dakota State, but they were more efficient in the first matchup. They had only five possessions in the game, but they scored on four of them. That includes three touchdowns in the first half to build a 21-3 halftime lead.

Defensively, South Dakota ranks 21st in total defense, 15th in passing yards allowed per game and fifth in scoring defense at 15.4 points per game.

The Coyotes are a bit more relenting against the run, as they give up 137.2 rushing yards per game to rank 46th in FCS. With a strong ground game, North Dakota State will look to attack South Dakota on the ground once again.

To do so, it will have to go through USD linebacker Brock Mogensen. The senior led the Missouri Valley Conference with 109 tackles, including 3.5 for loss, to go along with a sack and an interception en route to earning MVC Defensive Player of the Year honors.

North Dakota State is 7-1 in the FCS Playoffs when facing an opponent that it lost to during the regular season. However, five of those games also featured less than 50 points. That trend may extend to six out of nine.

In this matchup, we have two teams that pride themselves on running the football. They also have strong defenses, allowing just 35 points per game combined.

The first matchup saw 43 points, and that included South Dakota scoring a touchdown on each of its first three possessions.

Additionally, South Dakota’s switch in offensive philosophies this season has led to a slower and more methodical tempo. That means the Coyotes have had fewer possessions while their games have averaged just 40 points per game this season.

A repeat of the first matchup between the Bison and Coyotes would keep this game under 50 points by a touchdown.

Two of South Dakota's touchdowns came from more than 50 yards out, so adjustments from NDSU and a few more punts and field goals should lead to this game flying under.

Pick: Under 49.5

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