The Northern Illinois Huskies take on the Toledo Rockets in Toledo, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Toledo is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -650. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, enters as a +14.5 favorite and is +475 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 41.5 points.
Here’s my Northern Illinois vs. Toledo prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, November 5.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction
- Northern Illinois vs. Toledo Pick: Northern Illinois +14.5
My Toledo vs. Northern Illinois best bet is on the Huskies to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Odds
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
- Northern Illinois vs Toledo Spread: Toledo -14.5, Northern Illinois +14.5
- Northern Illinois vs Toledo Over/Under: 42.5 Points
- Northern Illinois vs Toledo Moneyline: Northern Illinois +475, Toledo -650
Northern Illinois vs Toledo College Football Betting Preview
Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Preview: Strong Defense, Weak Offense
Northern Illinois hasn't had the season it expected offensively after bringing in offensive coordinator Quinn Sanders from the Division II level to run a revamped offensive system.
We were set to see more passing and a quicker tempo, but instead, at the first sign of trouble, head coach Thomas Hammock reverted back to his old form.
The Huskies can't throw the ball and operate at one of the slowest tempos in FBS.
Quarterback Josh Holst has struggled, throwing for just 602 yards and four passing touchdowns this season, as NIU has yet to score more than 21 points in a game.
Defensively, NIU has punched above its weight class much of the way, holding opponents to just 22 points and 350 yards per game on average.
The secondary has been the catalyst. Opponents have completed just 57% of passes against the Huskies, and NIU has allowed only four passing touchdowns over the last six games. The run-stopping unit has been strong for the majority of the season, holding 6-of-8 opponents under four yards per carry.
Outside of games against Mississippi State and Ohio, NIU has allowed one total rushing score in its other six games.
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview: Time to Take Off?
Toledo also has to be disappointed in its 4-4 start to the season.
The Rockets have shown flashes of brilliance in taking an SEC opponent to the wire and blowing out Western Kentucky. However, they've also lost twice as two-touchdown favorites and looked completely abysmal in a road contest at Washington State 10 days ago.
Running back Chip Trayanum remains out, and the usually reliable rushing attack has suffered.
While not as explosive as in prior years with the passing attack, quarterback Tucker Gleason has done fine. It hasn’t been eye-popping, but he has completed 65% of his throws with 13 touchdown passes to just five interceptions.
The offensive line has done well to protect the quarterback and open holes in the run game, but the explosive plays just aren't there consistently enough.
Defensively, Toledo has been excellent for most of the season. The Rockets are allowing just 16 points per game and are the top defense in FBS in preventing explosive plays.
This team has an excellent secondary that doesn’t get beaten deep and makes every catch difficult. For the season, Toledo is giving up just 143 pass yards per game on just a 52% completion percentage. This unit carries the Rockets weekly.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Pick, Betting Analysis
Toledo is a heavy 14.5-point favorite, and we've seen the Jason Candle-coached Rockets struggle in this role numerous times before.
I won’t be surprised if NIU can muck this game up, slow the pace and control the possession with its run game, so I'm going to take the points.
Hammock has been an excellent road 'dog in his career, and I think the pace and the Huskies' run game will allow them to hang around in this one and keep it tighter than expected.
NIU is going to run the ball with Telly Johnson Jr. serving as the bell-cow back. Johnson is averaging 6.3 yards per carry on the ground this season, and while he hasn't been explosive, the NIU rushing attack is likely to do its job against a Toledo defense that ranks just 101st nationally in Success Rate allowed.
Northern Illinois has averaged five yards per carry in every MAC game this season, and I think it can do enough to move the ball and have some level of success here.
Defensively, NIU ranks 54th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 11th in EPA Per Play allowed. This defense has kept the Huskies in games all season, and Toledo doesn't have the offensive explosiveness to blow this game open.
The Rockets have feasted on some of the worst defenses in FCS in Kent State and Akron, and also destroyed a bad FCS team, but we've seen this offense stall out multiple times this year.
Toledo has been heavily penalized this season, having 63 accepted penalties called against it for 556 yards. Many of these flags were called in critical moments and impacted the final result. The Huskies, meanwhile, have been flagged only about half as much, and the hidden yardage and penalty yards should be in their favor here.
Toledo’s red-zone offense also hasn't performed well over the last five weeks, and NIU has a nasty red-zone defense that has forced five empty trips and 10 field goals.
I trust the Huskies' short-field defense to bow up inside the 20-yard line and make it very difficult for Toledo to end its drives with touchdowns.
Toledo has the most talent in the MAC year in and year out, but somehow, Candle and this coaching staff find ways to do less with more than anyone else in the league.
I don’t trust Candle as a heavy favorite, and the coach on the other side has been one of the most profitable for bettors in this road 'dog role — and we're getting two free touchdowns and the hook. I’m backing the Huskies here.
Pick: Northern Illinois +14.5
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Betting Trends
