The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Penn State is favored by -22 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. The total is set at 47 points.
Here’s my Northwestern vs. Penn State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Northwestern vs Penn State Prediction
Northwestern vs. Penn State Pick: Northwestern +22
My Penn State vs. Northwestern best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Northwestern vs Penn State Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
- Northwestern vs Penn State point spread: Penn State -22
- Northwestern vs Penn State over/under: 47 points
- Northwestern vs Penn State moneyline: Northwestern +1000, Penn State -2000
Northwestern vs Penn State Preview
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Baby Steps Forward
Who would've thought Northwestern would be the team in this matchup feeling good about itself heading into the thick of Big Ten play?
David Braun's Wildcats are 3-2 — one victory away from matching last year's win total — and already have a win in conference over UCLA.
Northwestern's offense last year was horrendous, averaging 4.2 yards per play — the second-worst of any major-conference unit. The Wildcats are already a full yard improved with former SMU quarterback Preston Stone, who's had a bit of an up-and-down season heading into Week 7.
The Wildcats are 3-2 against the spread this season, while four of their five games have sailed under the total. Northwestern is 1-1 covering the spread as an underdog, most recently staying within the number vs. Oregon.
Due to playing in negative game scripts last year, Northwestern finished just outside the top-25 nationally in pass play rate.
Establishing the ground game and controlling the clock appears to be a point of emphasis for Braun's offense in 2025: They're running the ball on more than 55% of their play calls.
Our expert Collin Wilson ranks Penn State No. 15 nationally (88.5 power rating) and Northwestern No. 70 (69.5).
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Buyer Beware
Penn State is reeling, and we shouldn't be surprised.
Last week's nationally-televised upset loss to UCLA was the cherry on top of a mid-year crisis for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions, who have yet to beat a Power Four team this season.
At 3-2, Penn State will likely become irrelevant this season. The Nittany Lions deserve it.
They haven't covered a single spread all year despite playing four home games, three of which were against FCS or mid-major opponents.
An "improved" offense skill core from last year hasn't done squat for the progression of Drew Allar, who, we learned for the third year in a row, isn't a franchise NFL quarterback.
It's Week 7, and we can confidently say Penn State is a worse team than last year.
The Nittany Lions are -0.7 yards per play on offense from 2024, and the defense is giving up 0.3 yards more.
Naturally, it's a large spread for Saturday. But there's a unique position to take.
Northwestern vs Penn State Pick, Betting Analysis
Penn State makes the "do-not-bet" list for Week 7. This isn't just an opinion, though.
Backtested models built by Action Director of Research Evan Abrams show that Penn State is in an awful spot historically on Saturday.
The "Bounce-Back Fade" system singled out six teams bettors should steer clear of Saturday, and Penn State is one.
This winning model reveals that while Penn State looks like an easy "bounce back" candidate after losing to UCLA, teams fitting the Nittany Lions' profile only cover about 42% of the time.
Also, an additional conference-only system shows that big, road underdogs with low totals excel against the spread.
It's a pick on Northwestern — or should I say, a fade of Penn State — in Week 7
Pick: Northwestern +22 (Play to +21)
Northwestern vs Penn State Betting Trends
