The Northwestern Wildcats take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, California, on Friday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
USC is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -650. Northestern, meanwhile, enters as a +14.5 underdog and is +475 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51 total points.
Here’s my Northwestern vs. USC prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 7.
Northwestern vs USC Prediction
- Northwestern vs. USC Pick: USC Team Total Over 33.5
My USC vs. Northwestern best bet is on the Trojans to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Northwestern vs USC Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -650 |
- Northwestern vs USC Spread: USC -14.5, Northwestern +14.5
- Northwestern vs USC Over/Under: 51 Points
- Northwestern vs USC Moneyline: Northwestern +475, USC -650
Northwestern vs USC College Football Betting Preview
The best way to attack this matchup is by isolating USC’s offense and playing the Trojans’ team total over.
Every data point in this matchup suggests USC — which has a top-tier efficiency profile again this season — is set up to score early and often against a Northwestern defense that doesn’t match up.
I've said this for a long time now, but there's no question: USC has the best offensive unit in the entire country.
The Trojans rank second nationally in EPA Per Pass and 14th in EPA Per Rush, showing this is still one of the nation's most explosive and well-balanced offenses.
At the same time, Northwestern’s defense sits outside the top 75 in run defense and gives up 48.3% of available yards — a bottom-tier number that signals sustained drives, chunk plays and red-zone trips that almost always lead to points.
USC’s offense is also elite on money downs, converting over 53% of third- and fourth-down attempts. That pairs well with Northwestern, which allows opponents to convert nearly 48% of theirs.
The Trojans’ third-ranked early downs EPA mark means they play ahead of schedule, control tempo and force defenses to panic.
Even better for this bet, USC doesn’t need help from its defense.
In fact, the Trojans’ defensive inconsistency actually benefits an over because if Northwestern can extend drives at all, USC will be forced to stay aggressive for four quarters instead of bleeding clock with a lead.
The reason I want to attack the team total instead of laying the large number is that I have questions about the Trojans defense.
They're mediocre against the run, which tells me the 'Cats will be able to extend drives and potentially put points on the board.
I also don't believe in Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone, as he can be very prone to mistakes at times. If he turns the ball over often, that will give the Trojans offense a short field to work with.
Also, USC leads the country in available yards gained at 64.6%, proving it doesn't need short fields to score touchdowns.
Injuries don’t meaningfully change my position on this either. Wideout Ja’Kobi Lane is questionable, but USC’s receiver room and passing structure are deep enough that his status won't change much.
Northwestern, meanwhile, doesn’t have the defensive front or secondary flexibility to handle a USC offense that thrives on spacing, early-down success and matchup-based passing.
It's also important to note that the 'Cats haven't faced an offense like this all season. It's a bad travel spot, too.
Northwestern vs USC Pick, Betting Analysis
With home-field advantage and one of the most efficient offenses in the country, the Trojans are set up to roll at home.
Couple that with a Northwestern defense ranked outside the top 80 in both available yards allowed and early downs EPA, and a favorable game script, and I would be shocked to see the USC offense held at bay.
This is one of my favorite bets of the entire board.
Pick: USC Team Total Over 33.5
Northwestern vs USC Betting Trends
