The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes host the No. 1 Texas Longhorns in what's shaping up to be one of the best games of the 2025 college football season.
Odds have been on the move for this game, as Texas sat as high as +3 earlier this summer. Now, as we move closer to game time, the Longhorns have moved to +1 with Ohio State sitting at -1 and -110 on the moneyline. The over/under, meanwhile, comes in at 47 total points.
Let's dive into our Ohio State vs. Texas picks and college football odds for this NCAAF Week 1 clash.
Ohio State vs. Texas Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
We made it. All summer, this game served as something to look forward to. Now, we're here.
Ohio State and Texas met last season in the College Football Playoff semifinals, and the Buckeyes emerged victorious by a score of 28-14.
The Longhorns had a chance to knot the game at 21 on fourth-and-goal from the Buckeyes' 8-yard line. But Ohio State defensive end Jack Sawyer stripped Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and took the ball back 92 yards for the game-sealing score.
But now Sawyer's gone. So is Will Howard. And Emeka Egbuka. And TreyVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, too.
It's a new era.
Julian Sayin will lead the Buckeyes offense on Saturday, while Heisman Trophy favorite Arch Manning debuts as the Longhorns' starting quarterback.
With so many new faces taking the field, who has the advantage here? We polled our staff of college football writers and broke down their leans for the spread and over/under (and we threw in a player prop).
Let's take a look.
Ohio State vs. Texas Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Texas +1.5
By Pete Ruden
Our staff is leaning toward Texas here, and a lot of it has to do with experience.
Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning enters the season as the Heisman Trophy favorite after seeing significant playing time in three games a season ago.
In his 90 pass attempts from 2024, Manning completed 67.8% of his passes for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions — very solid numbers for a previously inexperienced freshman with plenty of hype surrounding him.
Manning is a much more known commodity than new Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, who recorded 14 total dropbacks last season (5-of-12, 84 yards, 1 TD).
Manning’s presence will also allow head coach Steve Sarkisian to open up the playbook a bit more, as he’s much more mobile than 2024 starter Quinn Ewers.
The key for Sayin will be finding a way to get the ball to Heisman contender Jeremiah Smith out wide.
Smith proved to be the best wide receiver in the nation last season, hauling in 76 passes for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns.
He didn’t have many bad games, but his worst came against this same Texas defense, which held him to one catch for three yards. And things won’t get any easier this time around with Malik Muhammad playing across from him.
Ohio State simply isn’t the same team it was last season when it won the national title. It’s time for the Longhorns to exact some revenge in Week 1.
Ohio State vs. Texas Over/Under Pick
Over 46.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 46.5 | 6 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 46.5
Last year’s College Football Playoff game between the Longhorns and Buckeyes flew under the total of 51.5 in Ohio State’s 28-14 win.
This year, the Action team is expecting another low-scoring game with a heavy skew to Texas-Ohio State going under the total.
The over/under for Saturday’s prime-time clash opened 50.5 in the summer and has since trickled down. After reaching a high of 48.5, another wave of under money pushed the Texas-Ohio State total down to 47.
Despite Arch Manning leading the show, Texas notably loses a bulk of production both at offensive tackle and wide receiver. Last year, the Longhorns finished 8-3-1 to the under.
Ohio State, meanwhile, finished under the total in eight of its final 13 games en route to the national title win.
Of course, Texas-Ohio State has drawn a humongous amount of bets utilizing Action PRO data. With the game around the corner, the over/under splits are certainly intriguing, with notable splits between tickets and money.
In fact, according to our public betting data, the under has taken 30% of the tickets but 48% of the money.
Ohio State vs. Texas Player Prop
Ohio State TE Max Klare 40+ Receiving Yards (-130 or Better)
By Alex Hinton
One of the oldest adages in football is “a tight end is a quarterback’s best friend.”
Ohio State added one of the best tight ends in the country when it added Max Klare in the transfer portal from Purdue. Klare heads to Columbus with 73 catches for 881 yards and four touchdowns in his career.
Klare had 40 receiving yards in 7-of-12 games last season. With Jeremiah Smith back as WR1 and Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss stepping into bigger roles, Klare will not be the focal point like he was in West Lafayette.
However, the attention being drawn to OSU’s loaded wide receiver room should help him find space over the middle of the field.
In particular, Texas will be locked in on trying to limit Smith’s impact. In last season’s CFP semifinal, the Longhorns bracketed Smith for much of the game and limited him to one reception for three yards.
I don't expect Smith to be that quiet again, but redshirt freshman quarterback Julian Sayin will have to take what the defense gives him.
With Sayin making his first career start, look for new offensive coordinator Brian Hartline to help him settle in with a few safe throws underneath. Klare figures to be the recipient of a few of those targets on his way to 40 yards.
Ohio State vs. Texas Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -108 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -111 |
- Ohio State vs. Texas Point Spread: Ohio State -1.5, Texas +1.5
- Ohio State vs. Texas Total: 46.5 Points
- Ohio State vs. Texas Moneyline: Ohio State -108, Texas -111
