The Oklahoma Sooners take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, Tennessee, on Saturday, Nov. 1. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Tennessee is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. Oklahoma, meanwhile, enters as a +3 underdog and is +125 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57 total points.
Here’s my Oklahoma vs. Tennessee prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee Prediction
- Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Pick: Oklahoma +3
My Tennessee vs. Oklahoma best bet is on the Sooners to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- Oklahoma vs Tennessee Spread: Tennessee -3, Oklahoma +3
- Oklahoma vs Tennessee Over/Under: 57 Points
- Oklahoma vs Tennessee Moneyline: Oklahoma +125, Tennessee -150
Oklahoma vs Tennessee College Football Betting Preview
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview: Looking to Bounce Back
Oklahoma's typically stiff defense allowed Ole Miss to record at least two first downs on at least half of its 13 offensive possessions.
The Sooners were excellent in standard downs, forcing an average of 6.3 yards to go on third down. Unfortunately for them, head coach Brent Venables' defense allowed 11-of-24 third- and fourth-down attempts to be converted.
The game ended with Ole Miss averaging a full yard per play less than Oklahoma, but with greater success against the Sooners defense in scoring position.
The key culprit was missed tackles, as Oklahoma missed 17 tackles against Ole Miss after missing 12 apiece against South Carolina and Texas. The Sooners now rank 97th in that area.
However, OU received some good news when it came to the health of quarterback John Mateer.
Mateer logged eight turnover-worthy plays in two games against Texas and South Carolina but was mistake-free against Ole Miss.
Still, the Washington State transfer's rushing game has disappeared. Mateer hasn't gained more than 24 rushing yards on designed calls since Week 3 against Temple.
Success Rate and Quality Drives numbers have both dipped outside the top 50 for coordinator Ben Arbuckle's balanced offense.
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview: Aguilar on Fire
For the third consecutive year, Tennessee beat Kentucky the week following a rivalry game against Alabama. The Wildcats were shelled by Volunteers quarterback Joey Aguilar, who went for 396 yards on 20-of-26 passing.
The Volunteers completed seven pass explosives, averaging 10-plus yards per play on four of their 11 offensive possessions. Aguilar now ranks 17th among all FBS quarterbacks in On-Target Rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
The defense has been a sour point for Tennessee this season, particularly against the rush.
The Volunteers rank 112th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and have been particularly rancid against zone read between the tackles. Tennessee has a 43% Success Rate against inside zone, allowing an explosive play on one of every 11 opponent rushing attempts.
Even worse is the Tennessee defense when pushed against the goal line. The Volunteers rank 131st in Finishing Drives allowed, as 24-of-29 opponent red-zone trips have ended in a touchdown.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee Pick, Betting Analysis
The biggest handicap in the game comes on a Sooners defense that's regressing in tackling fundamentals.
Tennessee's passing offense thrives in head coach Josh Heupel's wide-split stretch spread, producing a massive EPA on hitch routes. The Sooners have been fantastic against the hitch, averaging a 60% Success Rate against those routes by opponents.
Oklahoma ranks sixth in contested catch rate, one of the numbers that has the Sooners defense sitting at second in Havoc. Tennessee comes in at just 83rd in creating missed tackles, a number that indicates the Oklahoma defense should return to form.
The Volunteers defense must improve in defending inside zone, a run concept that will be utilized by Mateer and running back Tory Blaylock.
While neither of the Sooners' top rushers has produced many yards after contact, both Blaylock and Mateer have created 21 explosive runs.
Tennessee will struggle to stop the pair at the line of scrimmage and when it comes to limiting explosives, owning a rank of 112th in Rush EPA allowed.
Pick: Oklahoma +3
Oklahoma vs Tennessee Betting Trends
