Old Dominion vs James Madison Odds & Picks: Can Monarchs Keep It Close?

James Madison welcomes Old Dominion to Bridgeforth Stadium Saturday night for a Sun Belt Conference battle.

The 7-0 Dukes come into the matchup ranked in the top 25 of both the Associated Press and Coaches Poll for the first time in program history.

Meanwhile, the Monarchs have won three of their past four and are 4-3 overall (3-1 in the Sun Belt).

With a pair of teams that play strong defense and love to run the ball, this should be an old-school type of game, and I think the visitors can do enough to keep it close.

Ricky Rahne’s team has already topped its win total from last season. However, the Monarchs now have their sights on earning a bowl bid with a pair of victories.

Old Dominion's triumph over Appalachian State had a dramatic finish, which has been a common theme for ODU this season. The Monarchs scored the go-ahead points with 48 seconds remaining in the game.

Just a week before, Old Dominion staged a goal-line stand with less than four minutes to go to preserve the victory over Southern Miss.

This will definitely be a step up in competition, but ODU has shown it's up for a battle.

It really is a shame that James Madison isn't eligible to play in a bowl game or for the Sun Belt Conference title this season.

If not for the NCAA’s rule for programs making the jump up to the FBS level, the Dukes would be in a great spot to win the Sun Belt and contend for a New Year’s Six bowl bid.

The key to the start under coach Curt Cignetti has been the defense, which is second in the Sun Belt in points allowed per game (19.3). This is also the same unit that leads the league in sacks (34).

A stat that stands out above the rest is the fact that JMU is only giving up 36.1 rushing yards per game, which is easily the best in the country.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Old Dominion and James Madison match up statistically:

Old Dominion Offense vs. James Madison Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	62	1
Line Yards	41	1
Pass Success	121	41
Havoc	131	1
Finishing Drives	129	11
Quality Drives	122	11

James Madison Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	121	45
Line Yards	125	14
Pass Success	13	94
Havoc	99	77
Finishing Drives	94	35
Quality Drives	94	64

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	7	107
PFF Coverage	74	30
Special Teams SP+	115	23
Middle 8	84	62
Seconds per Play	24.2 (17)	27.8 (87)
Rush Rate	59.2% (72)	55.9% (40)

If you have been following my articles over the past month, you know I've backed Old Dominion in its past three games.

The Monarchs have covered the spread in each of those contests, and I can’t abandon them here.

So, my best bet is for the visitors to cover the +20.5-point spread, which I'd play to +17.5. It also wouldn't surprise me if you could get +21 as we get closer to kick.

This game will ultimately come down to two things — explosive plays and success on the ground. The Monarchs are in the top 20 of Non-Power 5 programs in both Line Yards and rush Explosiveness.

James Madison is the top team in the NP5 in just about all rushing defensive metrics, but the Dukes been known to give up explosive plays.

In a game with two run-heavy teams where the clock is likely going to be running, one or two explosive plays could be enough for Old Dominion to stay within this number.

I also can’t trust the Dukes to cover this big of a spread, as they rank in the bottom half of NP5 teams over the past four weeks in Offensive Finishing Drives.

As long as ODU's defense continues to hold up, I think the visitors can find a way to stay competitive in this game.