The No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels (6-0) take on the No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) in Athens, Georgia, on Saturday, Oct. 18. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -270. Ole Miss, meanwhile, comes in as a 7-point underdog and is +220 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 points.
Here’s my Ole Miss vs. Georgia prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
Ole Miss vs Georgia Prediction
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Pick: Georgia Team Total Over 31
My Georgia vs. Ole Miss best bet is on the Bulldogs to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ole Miss vs Georgia Odds, Spread
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
- Ole Miss vs Georgia Point Spread: Georgia -7
- Ole Miss vs Georgia Total: 56.5 points
- Ole Miss vs Georgia ML: Ole Miss +220, Georgia -270
Ole Miss vs Georgia College Football Betting Preview
Why Ole Miss Can Cover
The world has changed for Ole Miss since its last trip to Sanford Stadium in 2023, a 52-17 blowout loss thanks to an injury-depleted roster.
Head coach Lane Kiffin used the transfer portal to beef up depth and add blue chips in an effort to exact revenge against the Bulldogs.
This Ole Miss roster wasn't expected to have as much success as the 2024 team, but the addition of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has changed the direction of the Rebels' season.
The transfer from Ferris State took over starting duties in Week 3 and has since posted eight big-time throws to just two turnover-worthy plays.
Chambliss has been deadly on the ground with 212 yards off inside zone keepers, posting 10 explosive runs this season.
Chambliss has meshed well with a pair of transfer targets in Harrison Wallace III and Deuce Alexander, who each average 2.4 yards per route run.
The Ole Miss offense has been much more explosive through the air, even with pressure on the quarterback. Chambliss elevates with a crowded pocket, posting an 88% adjusted completion rate in 32 pressured dropbacks.
Creating quality drives will be key against Georgia, as the Bulldogs have had issues in keeping opponents off the board in scoring opportunities.
On the other side, the defense has seen a drop-off from the 2024 team, as numerous run analytics now sit outside the top 100. Ole Miss is a bottom-20 team in terms of Line Yards and Stuff Rate, so Georgia will have plenty of success owning the trench.
The narrative changes with a secondary led by safeties Sage Ryan and Wydett Williams Jr., as Ole Miss ranks 17th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
The 3-3-5 has been excellent at limiting opponent pass explosives while maintaining a top-35 third-down defense.
If Ole Miss wants to win this game, the front of the nickel defense must produce against inside zone rushing attempts.
Why Georgia Can Cover
Georgia survived one of the wildest games of 2025 with a 20-10 victory over an Auburn team that may have been robbed of a 17-0 lead at the end of the first half.
The Bulldogs ended with a 53% post-game win expectancy in the 10-point win, barely edging out Auburn in overall yards per play.
The rushing attack was stuffed on 11-of-29 attempts against a Tigers defensive front that's one of the best in the nation at defending the run.
Auburn imploded just before halftime, ending the game with 11 penalties for 103 yards despite converting nearly half of all third- and fourth-down attempts.
Quarterback Gunner Stockton has seen smoke in his touchdown-to-interception ratio, posting just six big-time throws to five turnover-worthy plays.
Georgia struggles to create explosives, ranking 131st in Pass EPA.
Stockton has relied on short passing and a 6.8-yard mark in average depth of target, as slot Zachariah Branch has done most of his damage in the backfield. Of his 36 targets this season, 21 have come in the backfield, making open-field tackling an emphasis for Ole Miss.
The Georgia defense has seen a drop-off since the national title teams of the post-pandemic era.
The Bulldogs have been unable to generate Havoc and rank in the bottom 15 in terms of creating a pass rush.
The secondary, which plays plenty of Cover 3, quarters and man, ranks 68th in coverage, per PFF.
Where the Bulldogs have exceeded expectations is against the rush, dominating teams that use inside zone and power run concepts.
How To Make Ole Miss vs Georgia Picks
Chambliss has been a revelation for Ole Miss in passing, scrambling and RPO decisions. However, Georgia's defense may be the kryptonite for Ole Miss' style of ground attack.
The Bulldogs rank second of all FBS teams in tackling, allowing just 17 missed tackles over the past three SEC games against Alabama, Kentucky and Auburn.
Kirby Smart's defense dominates inside zone, the preferred run concept for Ole Miss, at a 56% Success Rate. That number grows to 60% against Ole Miss' second preferred choice with man blocking.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia should have plenty of success moving the ball despite the injury status of running back Chauncey Bowens.
Nate Frazier has been the more elusive running back, averaging 3.3 yards after first contact, while Josh McCray has been a red-zone option with Stockton on goal-line attempts. Georgia ranks 10th nationally in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Action Network's betting power ratings project Georgia -5, prompting an initial play on the Rebels at +7 in early-week wagering in the Action App.
Considering Georgia's tackling excellence and its ability to stop inside zone, there's a real chance Ole Miss will have more success against the Bulldogs' secondary in creating scoring opportunities.
The Georgia offense will have no issues controlling the line of scrimmage and running into red-zone attempts on most possessions.
The Ole Miss offense will have deep strikes through the arm of Chambliss, but there will be no resistance against Georgia's ground game.
Pick: Georgia Team Total Over 31 or Better
Ole Miss vs Georgia Betting Trends
