NCAAF Odds, Picks for Oregon vs. Texas Tech
Photo by Josh Hedges/Getty Images. Pictured: Joey McGuire (Texas Tech)
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Odds
Oregon travels on the road for a tough test in Lubbock to take on Texas Tech in what should be one of the most exciting games of the weekend.
The Ducks put 81 points on the board against Portland State in the opener, which really isn't a shock when you consider the amount of talent they have returning. The Ducks are poised to win the Pac-12 in their final season with Bo Nix under center, but if they want to put their name in the College Football Playoff picture, they have to win this game.
Texas Tech lost outright as a 14-point favorite in Laramie to Wyoming in Week 1. The offense came out firing and scored back-to-back touchdowns in the first quarter, but then was only able to score three more points in regulation before losing in double overtime.
The Red Raiders are going to be one of the most fast-paced teams in the country, but are they a live underdog here at home against the Ducks?
Nix season is in full effect right now. The Ducks are set up to once again be an offensive force in the Pac-12. Nix had a fantastic year last season, and it was an offense that fit him very well.
The Oregon offense isn't built on big plays down field. The Ducks used the short passing game better than anyone, which allowed Nix to flourish. He led college football with an 82.7% adjusted completion percentage and only had 16 big-time throws for the entire season.
In fact, 71% of his pass attempts were less than 10 yards in the air. Oregon ended up ranking fifth in Passing Success Rate, but 128th in Passing Explosiveness.
He gets four of his top-five pass catchers back, so he's set up very well to have success again.
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The rushing attack was amazing last year, ranking second in the entire country in Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush. The Ducks get their top two running backs back and 96 starts across the offensive line, so this offense is loaded once again.
The defense had some major issues last year, which is putting it lightly. Oregon allowed a whopping 5.8 yards per play, ranked 99th in Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
They struggle against both the run and the pass.
And with only eight starters returning, I have a hard time seeing how they're going to slow down Texas Tech's offense.
The Red Raiders played at one of the fastest paces last season, averaging 87 plays per game and 20.2 seconds per play, which is not shocking with Zach Kittley as the offensive coordinator. The former Houston Baptist and Western Kentucky offensive coordinator runs an up-tempo Air Raid system that can give any defense problems.
The thing is that Texas Tech was really good offensively when Tyler Shough was the quarterback. He got hurt in the Red Raiders' first game against Murray State, but returned and started the final four games of the season. One of those starts was 458-yard passing performance against Oklahoma.
Shough will certainly benefit from all 11 starters returning on offense and now being comfortable in Year 2 of Kittley's system.
Against Wyoming, the Red Raiders were fine moving the ball until they got in Wyoming territory. They only were able to get 20 points off of seven trips inside the Wyoming 40-yard line, with their kicker missing three field goals.
The Texas Tech defense was actually above-average, finishing 31st in Success Rate Allowed, 48th in EPA/Play Allowed and 33rd in Finishing Drives Allowed.
The defense is only returning six starters, but the Red Raiders added a lot of transfers with starting experience, so there really shouldn't be too big of a drop-off.
Despite giving up 35 points, they held Wyoming to just 4.1 yards per play and limited Wyoming quarterback Andrew Peasley to 18-of-34 for 149 yards through the air.
Oregon vs Texas Tech
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a revenge game for Shough, who transferred to Texas Tech after getting beat out for the starting job at Oregon.
Nix and the Oregon offense are a dangerous combination, but Texas Tech being above-average in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed is a good match — especially when Nix isn't able to take advantage of the Red Raiders' one weakness last year, which is giving up chunk plays in the passing game.
The Texas Tech offense should start to show improvements in Year 2 of Kittley's offensive system. That's especially the case when going up against a defense that was quite frankly terrible.
This is a classic situational spot to buy low on the Red Raiders at home when they're coming off an embarrassing loss. I like Texas Tech at +6.5 or better.