Overrated, Underrated College Football Teams Based on Our Week 4 Power Ratings

Sep 18, 2018 12:49 AM EDT
  • Here are the biggest discrepancies between how AP voters, oddsmakers and The Action Network have ranked college football teams after Week 3.
  • There are plenty of overrated and underrated teams based on our proprietary power ratings.
  • For example: AP has kept Michigan at No. 19, while the Wolverines are No. 8 in our ratings.

College football season officially starts when a national championship contender is upset at home.

That happened twice in Week 3, and the AP Top 25 had a major shakeup as a result. BYU’s upset of Wisconsin dropped the Badgers 12 spots while LSU’s upset of Auburn moved the Tigers (of LSU) up six spots.

BYU, Boston College and Texas A&M climbed into the Top 25, while Boise State and Arizona State were both bounced from Week 4’s rankings.

The Aggies could have a short-lived stay at No. 22 with a road matchup against Alabama on deck. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 North takes the spotlight on Saturday night when seventh-ranked Stanford travels to 20th-ranked Oregon.

Iowa, which missed the Top 25 by 11 votes, will host 18th-ranked Wisconsin.

With The Action Network’s Week 4 projections and power ratings in mind, let’s take a look at the most overrated and underrated teams in the AP Top 25.


Overrated College Football Teams

Stanford Cardinal

As College GameDay descends on Eugene, we have a 13-point gap in the AP Poll between Stanford and Oregon.

The Action Network power ratings have the Ducks favored at a neutral site. The S&P+ ratings have tho two teams separated by 1.5 points.

Stanford did not cover against UC Davis, but the team was without the services of Bryce Love. While Oregon has had an easy non-conference slate, Stanford victories over San Diego State and USC might have inflated the Cardinal’s value.

BYU Cougars

The jet sweep by BYU led to a huge upset of Wisconsin at Camp Randall. Squally Canada went for two touchdowns and BYU cracks the AP’s rankings.

BYU now sits at 25 in the AP Poll — 20 spots higher than where a Vegas power rating would have the Cougars. For perspective, there are teams not in the Top 25 that would be close to touchdown favorites over BYU. That list includes Missouri, Texas and Florida.

North Texas Mean Green

The Mean Green received four votes in the AP Poll to rank them 39th overall in the country. Arkansas has done a stellar job at making teams look great in 2018, which was enough to get North Texas votes.

While I have the guys from Denton ranked much lower at 69th overall, this at least gives me a chance to showcase the greatest college football play of the 2018 season.

Underrated College Football Teams

Mississippi State Bulldogs

The love for Cowbell will not stop until proven otherwise. Mississippi State ranks 14th in the AP Poll, which is still not good enough to reflect the job Joe Moorhead is doing.

The Bulldogs rank in the top 10 in offense and defense, while going for 8.47 yards per play. Mississippi ranks 14th in the nation at third down conversions, which has been an issue for this week’s opponent, Kentucky (97th in third down conversions allowed).

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan stays put at 19 in the AP Poll after victories over Western Michigan and SMU.

Quarterback Shea Patterson continues to get comfortable in the offensive scheme, which should pay dividends in conference play. The Wolverines would be favored in games against teams ranked higher in the AP Poll, including Central Florida, TCU and Oklahoma State.

Oregon Ducks

Oregon did not get close to covering against San Jose State, but the game was never in doubt. Once the lead over the Spartans grew to multiple scores the game plan became vanilla, with 49 rushing attempts by seven different players.

The Ducks’ only agenda was to get a healthy roster to conference play without a blemish in the loss column.

Oregon has had issues with Stanford over the past two years, getting beat by 67 combined points. Saturday’s showdown in Autzen will go along way in dictating the Pac-12’s future for the College Football Playoff.

Credit:

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Shea Patterson

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
59.5
-29.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
52.5
-41.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
70
-35
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
60.5
-7
ISU
TEX
51
-3
49.5
-2.5
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
63
-10