Penn State vs. Minnesota Odds & Picks: Can Gophers Survive First True Challenge?

Nov 09, 2019 11:15 AM EST
Credit:

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Garrett Taylor

  • The latest Penn State vs. Minnesota odds have the Nittany Lions as a 6.5-point favorite, with the over/under at 48.
  • The unbeaten Gophers struggled in non-conference play but have rolled through their Big Ten slate, albeit against five teams with backup quarterbacks.
  • Action EDGE members can get all our picks on this game, including a first-half spread and game total.

Penn State vs. Minnesota Odds, Picks

  • Odds: Penn State -6.5
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC
  • Location: Minneapolis, Minn.

Odds as of Saturday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Not all undefeated teams are created equal.

Minnesota has a strength of schedule outside the top 80, while Penn State is just inside the top 20. And that creates uncertainty about just how good the Gophers are.

With the exception of Michigan, no team has scored more than 13 points on the Nittany Lions. Minnesota allowed more than 30 points to Purdue, Georgia Southern and Fresno State, and won all four of its non-conference games by single digits.

Can the Gophers handle the step up in class, or will Penn State flex its muscles on Saturday to remain unbeaten.

How PSU-Minnesota Odds Have Moved

Public bettors have been on the Nittany Lions — who opened at -6.5 — since this line opened, but oddsmakers have had trouble keeping the line at a touchdown.

On each occasion PSU went to -7, bigger bettors have slammed Minnesota at the key number, sending the line back to its opener. The 36% of Gopher bettors have accounted for 45% of money being wagered on the spread.

The total hasn’t seen a whole lot of movement despite a 73% backing of the under. Perhaps the more balanced money percentages (58% on the under) have kept the movement under control, as the number has only fallen from 48 to 47.5. — Danny Donahue

Wilson: One Key Edge for Penn State

Every offensive advanced statistic is countered by a better defensive rating for both sides (except one, which I’ll get to).

Minnesota is 25th in rush and 10th in passing success rate, but will have issues against a Penn State defense that is No. 1 and No. 8 in the same categories. Minnesota ranks No. 2 in defensive pass explosiveness, which should come into play against Sean Clifford and the Penn State passing attack.

But that one is in the trenches, with Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Minnesota ranks outside the top 70 in those categories while Penn State is top 5. The Nittany Lions ground attack (which hasn’t been great, for what it’s worth) should control the game.

Our Action Network power ratings make this game Penn State -9 with a total of 56, as the low over/under oddsmakers have posted may be influenced by the terrible offenses Minnesota has faced.

But the one constant we know is Penn State’s defense, which ranks No. 3 in yards per play allowed against a much tougher schedule.

Since the Buffalo game, Penn State has yet to trail entering halftime. In the past five games, Penn State has allowed 20 points total in the first half. Collin Wilson

Collin’s Pick: Penn State -3.5 1H [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Stuckey: Gophers Offense Is For Real

This is a really tough game for me to handicap for two primary reasons:

  1. Penn State has owned me all season
  2. Minnesota hasn’t played anybody

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