The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT on BTN.
Minnesota is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Purdue vs. Minnesota prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
Purdue vs Minnesota Prediction
- Purdue vs. Minnesota Pick: Purdue +8.5 (-110, bet365)
My Minnesota vs. Purdue best bet is on the Boilermakers to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Purdue vs Minnesota Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Purdue vs Minnesota point spread: Minnesota -8.5 (-110), Purdue +8.5 (-110)
- Purdue vs Minnesota over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Purdue vs Minnesota moneyline: Purdue +275, Minnesota -350
Purdue vs Minnesota Preview
This game activated one of our PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Early Road Redemption is a college football system that identifies value with visiting teams during the opening stretch of the season, after they have underperformed against the spread in their previous outing.
The market often punishes these teams too heavily for a single early loss, creating inflated lines in the next matchup.
By narrowing the spread range between modest underdogs and double-digit spots, the system captures situations where the road team is competitive but overlooked.
These games are played in manageable weather conditions and typically fall within lower scoring totals, which reduces volatility and keeps contests closer than expected.
When teams in their first eight games seek redemption on the road after a poor showing against the spread, they frequently outperform expectations, making this a profitable angle.
For what it's worth, this system is 15-11 this season (58% win, 12% ROI). Nine of the past 14 teams that fit this system have covered.
While I’m never excited about the prospect of backing the Boilers, it’s not as gross as it once was. The offense has real life behind quarterback Ryan Browne (63% completion, 7 yards per dropback, .14 EPA per dropback, three 300-yard games) and a surprisingly competent ground attack (23rd nationally in EPA per Rush, 150 yards on 25 carries last week against Illinois).
I still don’t trust Purdue’s defense, but I don’t trust Minnesota’s, either. The Gophers rank 124th nationally in EPA per Rush, relying entirely on Drake Lindsey’s arm. He’s been elite this season, and the Boilermakers’ secondary is a disaster, which is the big thing that scares me in this matchup.
All that said, maybe the Boilermakers have found something on defense after generating a whopping eight tackles for loss against Illinois last week. Purdue deserved to cover in that game, so I’m hopeful that some positive regression comes their way in this Big Ten road matchup.
Pick: Purdue +8.5 (-110, bet365)
