San Diego State vs San Jose State Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back the Home Favorite
Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: San Jose State’s Kairee Robinson.
San Diego State vs San Jose State Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
San Jose State and San Diego State meet at CEFCU Stadium on Saturday night for a Golden State battle in the Mountain West Conference.
The Spartans are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning each of their last four to move into contention for the MWC Championship.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs have really struggled all season, which could have been one of the reasons veteran coach Brady Hoke announced he would retire at the end of the year.
This feels like a game of teams headed in opposite directions. So, let’s dive into the San Diego State vs. San Jose State odds to find the best pick and predictionon the board.
At his weekly Monday press conference, Hoke told reporters that the next two games would be the final of his coaching career.
He has a resume that saw stops at Ball State, Michigan and San Diego State. Hoke has compiled a 104-89 career record to go with four conference titles and 2011 Maxwell Football Club Collegiate Coach of the Year honors.
Unfortunately for SDSU, it doesn’t look like his final campaign will be one of his best. However, the Aztecs have been in some close losses.
In three of its five defeats, San Diego State was beaten by just one score. It also hasn’t helped that SDSU has played five teams that have at least 10 wins on the season.
Regardless of how this ends, Hoke will be remembered as one of the best coaches in the program’s history.
After just one win in the opening six games, it was looking like a lost season for head coach Brent Brennan and his team. However, once the schedule started to lighten up, the Spartans turned around the results.
The difficult opening stretch included contests against USC, Oregon State and Toledo in the nonconference slate. This was then followed by opening MWC play against Air Force and Boise State.
Over this winning period, SJSU has been dominant, outscoring opponents 171-63 over the four-game win streak. The team now needs just one more win to become bowl-eligible for the third time in the last four seasons.
This would be the first time that happened in program history, and if other results go their way in the final two weeks, the Spartans could sneak their way into the conference title game.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and San Jose State match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 128 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 92 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 89 | 62 |
San Jose State Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 132 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 37 | |
| Quality Drives | 39 | 92 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 128 | 84 |
| PFF Coverage | 107 | 15 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 76 | 128 |
| Middle 8 | 102 | 77 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.1 (121) | 29.6 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 57.2% (39) | 52.8% (76) |
San Diego State vs San Jose State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The key to this game will be who can establish the run game on offense. Whether you're looking at season-long stats or metrics over the last four weeks, I believe those signs point to the home team.
So, my best bet is to take San Jose State to continue to roll at -14.5, which I would play to 15.5.
The Aztecs have struggled to stop opposing teams’ ground games this season. SDSU ranks in the bottom 10 defensively among Non-Power 5 programs in Stuff Rate, Line Yards, Rush PPA and Rush Success.
That's bad news when facing the dominant rushing attack of SJSU. Over the last four weeks, the Spartans have averaged 260 rushing yards per game.
Senior running back Kairee Robinson is averaging 7.1 yards per carry, which leads the MWC and ranks sixth in the country. I’m not sure the Aztecs will be able to slow him down.
On the other side of the ball, I can’t trust SDSU to be able to consistently move the ball to keep up. Hoke’s team sits in the bottom five in offensive explosiveness and Points per Opportunity.
If a team isn't scoring when it crosses into opposing territory or creating explosive plays, how does it generate points?
I like SJSU to keep the hot streak going with a dominant win here.
Pick: San Jose State -14.5 (Play to -15.5)
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