SEC Championship Picks, Odds: Our Same Game Parlay for Georgia vs. Alabama (Saturday, December 2)
Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama’s Jermaine Burton.
When Georgia and Alabama get together, not only are the nation's two most talented rosters (per 247Sports) on the field. It's also the master in Nick Saban vs. the protege in Kirby Smart.
However, over the last three years, Smart's Bulldogs have dominated college football, winning 29 consecutive games and the last two College Football Playoff National Championships.
Georgia's last loss came to Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship game, which it avenged in the CFP National Championship.
This year, Georgia and Alabama will face off in the SEC Championship game, and once again, spots in the CFP are on the line. Georgia is a touchdown favorite with a total of 54.5 points. Here's my same-game parlay for the clash.
Georgia -4.5
Since 2017, Georgia has won 11 games or more in every non-shortened season. It took Georgia until the 2021 CFP National Championship to take over the top spot over Alabama.
However, since then, Georgia has been the top Dawg (pun intended) in college football. I don't see Alabama being the team to knock Georgia off its perch.
Perhaps more than most Saban teams, this year's version of the Crimson Tide has been very boom or bust. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is averaging 10.6 yards per attempt, and Alabama is first in passing explosiveness.
Milroe has had at least one 40-yard pass in 10-of-11 games this year. However, Alabama sits 31st in Passing Success Rate and 43rd in Rushing Success Rate. While Alabama is solid in those areas, it's going to need to be more than solid to take down Georgia.
Milroe is a big play waiting to happen both in the passing and running game, but he can struggle with his consistency and accuracy at times. The more consistent quarterback in this game is Carson Beck, who leads a Georgia passing attack that ranks second nationally in Passing Success Rate.
Georgia has been favored anywhere from 4.5 to 6.5 all week depending on the book. I prefer 4.5, as it was the opening line and is safely under a touchdown.
Behind Beck, I expect Georgia to get back to the CFP for the third consecutive year and defend its national titles.
Carson Beck 250+ Alt. Passing Yards
Beck is 10th in the FBS with 3,495 passing yards this season, averaging 291.5 passing yards per game. Beck's line is at 273.5 yards per game, and he has gone over in 8-of-12 games this season.
He has thrown for 250 yards in all but one game this season. The lone exception came last week against Georgia Tech when Georgia lost the time-of-possession pattle and Beck threw the ball only 20 times.
Now, Alabama is the best defense that Beck will have faced this season. It's fifth in Passing Success Rate defensively.
Additionally, all-world tight end Brock Bowers and receivers Ladd McConksey and Rara Thomas did not play at Georgia Tech last week. All of them are expected to play, with the confidence being the highest on Bowers. He's the most important of the three, so that's good news for Georgia and Beck's passing yards prop.
I think Beck finds success through the air here, but considering the factors here, I'm lowering Beck to 250 yards. It increases his hit rate by 20%, and -168 isn't bad for a parlay piece.
Kendall Milton Anytime TD
Senior running back Daijun Edwards ran for a touchdown in five of his six games this season. He still leads the team with 781 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.
However, Kendall Milton has gotten healthy and has looked like the better back of late.
Milton is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, 1.2 more than Edwards, and has 10 rushing touchdowns himself. He has also scored in each of his past seven games with nine of his touchdowns coming in that span.
We're only getting plus-money odds here because of the Alabama defense. However, the Crimson Tide can be had on the ground. They're allowing 128.4 rushing yards per game and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns this season.
The Crimson Tide are also 117th in defending rushing explosiveness.
At 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, Milton has the frame of a bruiser, but he does have three runs of 20 yards or more this season. Edwards and Milton both get carries in the inside the 10, but I'll take Milton here for the slightly better odds.
He also may be the preferred back this week against a physical Alabama team.
Jermaine Burton Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
I don't expect Georgia to blow out Alabama, but I am expecting the Crimson Tide to play from behind. If that comes to fruition, then the game script will call for Alabama to throw to catch up.
That will likely include a couple of deep shots from Milroe, which is where Jermaine Burton comes in.
Burton only has 33 receptions this season, but he has 749 receiving yards for an average of 22.7 yards. Burton has posted 58 receiving yards in 8-of-10 games this season, with at least 60 yards in seven of them. He has soared over this line with 100 receiving yards in three of his past six games, including the last two weeks.
At essentially 23 yards per catch, Burton will not need many chances to clear this line if his average holds here. Three receptions would do the trick, and he has seven games with three receptions. He has hit this line in five of those games.
It also doesn't hurt that Burton transferred to Alabama from Georgia. He may have a little extra motivation this week going against his former teammates, especially with the stakes of this game.
Georgia vs. Alabama Same Game Parlay
- Georgia -4.5 (-118)
- Carson Beck 250+ Alt. Passing Yards (-168)
- Kendall Milton Anytime TD (+104)
- Jermaine Burton Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Parlay Odds: +736 via FanDuel
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