The SMU Mustangs take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
TCU is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -275. The total is set at 64.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. TCU prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
SMU vs TCU Prediction
- SMU vs. TCU Pick: Under 64.5 (Play to 62.5)
My TCU vs. SMU best bet is on the Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU vs TCU Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
- SMU vs TCU point spread: SMU +7, TCU -7
- SMU vs TCU over/under: 64.5 points
- SMU vs TCU moneyline: SMU +225, TCU -275
SMU vs TCU Preview
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview: Run-First Offense
The Mustangs have taken care of business against an FCS team in East Texas A&M and a former FCS team in Missouri State.
However, they came up short in an explosive matchup against Baylor.
While their lone loss has looked very different from their victories, SMU has formed an identity as a run-first offense. The Mustangs have rushed the ball 56% of the time, and their lead back, T.J. Harden, is averaging six yards per carry.
However, Harden is in for a tough test as TCU has been tremendous against the run, holding opposing ball carriers to just 1.8 yards per carry.
If SMU can't get the ground game going, its offense will be questionable, as the offensive line has not held up all that well for quarterback Kevin Jennings.
Jennings has been effective when given time, but the Horned Frogs rank 32nd nationally in sack rate and are far better than the defensive lines the Mustangs have allowed sacks to already.
We should learn a lot about SMU's offense on Saturday.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Hoover Thrives Behind Solid OL
The Horned Frogs have come out blazing behind gunslinger Josh Hoover at quarterback. Hoover has been uber efficient, completing 73% of his passes.
However, much of his and the offense's success in general can be attributed to the excellent play of the offensive line. TCU has yet to allow a sack and is averaging 7.4 yards per rush.
The big boys up front should again give Hoover plenty of clean pockets to dissect a SMU secondary that has had its fair share of struggles thus far. The Mustangs rank 92nd nationally in opponent completion percentage and 97th in yards per pass allowed.
We saw Sawyer Robertson of Baylor light it up against them two weeks ago, and Hoover should be able to replicate those results.
SMU vs TCU Pick, Betting Analysis
The Horned Frogs are the A-side in this matchup.
They hold a significant edge when in possession of the ball, but they also have the potential to force the Mustangs' offense into an uncomfortable spot without their ground game.
SMU's inability to move the chains on the ground in this one could derail their offense into a bad showing.
Look for TCU to pull away in this one as the Mustangs are unable to get it going, which will result in a relatively lower-scoring game.
Pick: Under 64.5 (-110, bet365 | Play to 62.5)
