NCAAF Odds, Picks for South Alabama vs. UL Monroe
Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: La’Damian Webb (South Alabama)
South Alabama vs. ULM Odds
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -400 |
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +310 |
South Alabama heads to Monroe to play the Warhawks as it looks to break a two-game losing streak.
Despite some brilliant individual efforts and good metrics on both sides of the ball, the Jaguars have taken three losses on the season.
They will be looking to bounce back against a UL Monroe team that has been feisty at times this season, with a 2-2 record.
But the play of Terry Bowden’s outfit hasn't lived up to its .500 record, and it could be exposed by a South Alabama team that was one of the league favorites heading into the season.
Kane Wommack’s team was favored to challenge Troy for the Sun Belt West title, but this season has had its strikes and gutters. Losses to Tulane, Central Michigan and James Madison are tough pills to swallow, but that’s only one conference loss to the best team in the league.
The Jags do have a Power Five win, good metrics, a veteran quarterback and all their team goals are still in play.
They're middle of the pack for SP+ splits — 70th on offense and 63rd on defense, which is good for a Group of Five team, and 11th in special teams, which is excellent. The Jags' scoring attack is powered by big plays, ranking only 94th in Success Rate, but No. 6 overall in explosives.
The South Alabama offense is led by a duo of skill position stars.
La’Damian Webb is one of the best tailbacks in a conference chock-full of good ballcarriers, and he's averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The Jaguars' ground game creates big plays, ranking third in rush explosives.
Receiver Caullin Lacy is stepping up after the season-ending injury to his running mate Devin Voisin. Lacy has recorded 100-yard games four weeks in a row and has found the end zone seven times this season.
What the offense lacks in down-to-down efficiency, it makes up for in explosive plays, and it's also strong at converting opportunities into points, ranking 26th in Finishing Drives.
The defense is also solid. There was offseason hope that with a host of returning starters — as well as star players like Yam Banks, Jamie Sherriff and Wy’Kevious Thomas — the unit would take a step forward and be as brilliant as conference peers Troy and Marshall.
But it has remained at about the same level as last year.
Their strength is stopping the run, and they're vulnerable against the pass. That’s bad news for a ULM team that can barely pass the ball and far prefers to run the rock.
The Jags' defense is top-30 in both Rushing Success Rate and Rushing Explosives Allowed. ULM is one of the most extreme run teams in the nation, ranking 112th out of 133 in Parker Fleming’s Rush Rate Over Expected metric.
The Warhawks' pass offense will be unlikely to test the beatable Jaguars secondary. Quarterback Jiya Wright has a 43 QBR (93rd in the nation) and the team has passed for only 553 yards on the season (138 per game).
The Warhawks didn't enter the season with aspirations of winning the conference or taking the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl spot.
No, a few wins – maybe another one against rival Louisiana – and enjoying the play of star receiver Tyrone Howell would be enough.
Bowden’s crew already stole a win against Army in the opener in a game it trailed for the first 55 minutes. The Warhawks almost stole one against App State last week — despite getting outgained in yardage — thanks to four Mountaineer turnovers.
They need to try to steal wins against conference foes because they have very little chance of sticking with the best teams in this league. Their SP+ splits are almost double South Alabama’s ranks; the Warhawks are outside of the top 110 in all three facets of the game.
ULM is going to try to pound the rock against South Alabama’s tough front. Three Warhawks have 30 carries on the season — tandem tailbacks Hunter Smith and Isaiah Woullard and QB Wright.
Wright has actually led the team in rushing each of the past two weeks, for better or worse.
The Warhawks' pass offense is almost non-existent; they didn't throw for 100 yards in any of the first three games. And while they can create the occasional big play through the air, they rank 132nd in Passing Success Rate.
This team is not equipped to challenge South Alabama’s prime defensive weakness.
ULM is not great on defense, either. The Warhawks rank 107th in Success Rate Allowed. They're middle of the FBS pack against explosive plays, but remember, South Alabama is top-10 in creating them.
South Alabama vs. ULM
Betting Pick & Prediction
While South Alabama has taken a few tough losses, it can still achieve the Sun Belt West crown. September might have been deflating, but it still has things to play for.
ULM is not well positioned to take advantage of the Jaguars' weakness, with a DOA passing game and a leaky defense.
In a league where home field advantage is not much of a factor, I’ll lay the points and take the road favorites.
Give me the Jaguars as long as I’m getting -10 or better.
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