Southern Miss vs South Alabama Odds, Prediction: Fade the Golden Eagles’ Offense

Tuesday night college football rolls on when South Alabama and Southern Miss meet in Mobile, Alabama, in a local rivalry in the Sun Belt Conference.

The Jaguars haven’t had the start to the season they were hoping for, holding a 3-3 record coming into this game. Although, their 33-7 win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater looks more impressive by the week.

Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles have also not lived up to expectations, losing their last five games after picking up their only win over FCS Alcorn State in their season opener.

These programs reside less than 100 miles from each other, which should give us a feisty midweek contest in the Sun Belt.

So, where does the betting value lie in this one? Let's dive into the Southern Miss vs. South Alabama odds and make a prediction in this college football betting preview for Tuesday, Oct. 17.

After winning the LendingTree Bowl last season, head coach Will Hall had his program moving in the right direction. However, Southern Miss couldn't carry that momentum into the new year.

Hall has had extra time to prepare for this one, so you know the fans will be expecting a better showing coming out of the bye.

The main struggles for the Golden Eagles have come on the offensive side of the ball, where they rank last in the conference in yards per play (5.0).

Another big problem has been the ineffective run game, which is a big surprise considering star running back Frank Gore Jr. returned for another season in Hattiesburg.

However, he has run for over 100 yards in two of his last three contests and will need to continue that if the team has a chance of being competitive this season.

Southern Miss isn't the only team in this matchup that had a banner season last year, as Kane Wommack guided the Jaguars to a 10-win season in 2022.

With a lot of returners from that team, there were high expectations for South Alabama heading into this season. However, the program has not lived up to those lofty standards.

Even with the slow start, the huge win at Oklahoma State stands out. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, it was followed by losses to Central Michigan and James Madison.

Running back La’Damian Webb is still putting together a strong season so far, scoring a touchdown in five straight games. Webb ranks fourth in the nation with eight rushing touchdowns while also ranking top-10 in total scores on the year.

If veteran quarterback Carter Bradley can get the passing game going more consistently, the Jaguars will start to get back on track.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Southern Miss and South Alabama match up statistically:

Southern Miss Offense vs. South Alabama Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	93	17
Line Yards	123	42
Pass Success	122	105
Havoc	73	91
Finishing Drives	93	33
Quality Drives	93	50

South Alabama Offense vs. Southern Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	62	58
Line Yards	33	111
Pass Success	53	63
Havoc	46	52
Finishing Drives	12	89
Quality Drives	38	105

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	74	105
PFF Coverage	125	68
Special Teams SP+	78	21
Middle 8	130	68
Seconds per Play	28.2 (91)	27.4 (78)
Rush Rate	51.7% (83)	53.0% (62)

When I dove into this matchup, the one unit that jumped out as the weakest on the field was Southern Miss’ offense. I don’t expect to see much improvement even after the bye week.

So, my best bet is for the Golden Eagles to fall under their team total of 17.5 points at FanDuel, and I would play down to 17.

The key to stopping Southern Miss' attack is to be strong against the run, which is where the Jaguars have excelled this season. On the year, South Alabama ranks in the top 20 nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and holds top-15 marks in Line Yards and explosiveness among non-Power 5 teams.

Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles have topped this total in only two of their five games against FBS opponents. Those two teams were Texas State and Arkansas State, who are both a step down on defense compared to South Alabama.

Neither team should be playing at a quick tempo either, as both teams rank outside the top 70 in seconds per play.

In the previous three meetings between these teams, the under has cashed twice. I believe Southern Miss will contribute to that happening again here.

Pick: Southern Miss Team Total Under 17.5 (Play to 17)