The Stanford Cardinal take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on The CW.
SMU is favored by 19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -950. Stanford, meanwhile, comes in as a +19.5 underdog and is +625 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55 points.
Here’s my Stanford vs. SMU prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 11.
Stanford vs SMU Prediction
- Stanford vs. SMU Pick: Stanford +19.5
My SMU vs. Stanford best bet is on the Cardinal to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Stanford vs SMU Odds
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -950 |
- Stanford vs SMU Spread: SMU -19.5, Stanford +19.5
- Stanford vs SMU Over/Under: 55 Points
- Stanford vs SMU Moneyline: Stanford +625, SMU -950
Stanford vs SMU College Football Betting Preview
Saturday's Stanford vs. SMU game fits a historically profitable betting system called "Fade Home Favorite in Conference With 0 ATS Wins" from our Bet Labs database.
In regular-season college football conference play, home favorites with no wins against the spread often find themselves overvalued by the market.
Despite poor ATS performance, the perception of home-field advantage and overall team strength can keep lines inflated.
Facing familiar conference opponents who understand their tendencies, these teams are more vulnerable than the odds suggest.
The combination of public bias, inflated spreads and a proven inability to cover creates consistent value in fading the home favorite in this situation.
Stanford vs SMU Pick, Betting Analysis
Stanford has two key advantages on the defensive side of the ball in this matchup: Finishing Drives allowed and explosiveness allowed.
The Mustangs sit outside the top 70 in Offensive Finishing Drives and rank 60th in explosiveness. That means they'll have to put together methodical drives, which is possible against this Stanford defense. However, that will take time off the clock, allowing the underdog to stick around.
On the other side of the ball, Stanford has put up 25 points or more in two of its last three games, including a 30-20 upset win over Boston College.
Given the matchup and system at play, we think this spread is too big and will take the Cardinal to cover.
Pick: Stanford +19.5
Stanford vs SMU Betting Trends
