The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe, Arizona. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
Arizona State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 54.5 points.
Here’s my TCU vs. Arizona State prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 26.
TCU vs Arizona State Prediction
- TCU vs. Arizona State Pick: TCU +3 (-110, bet365)
My Arizona State vs. TCU best bet is on the Horned Frogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
TCU vs Arizona State Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Arizona St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- TCU vs Arizona State point spread: Arizona St -3 (-110), TCU +3 (-110)
- TCU vs Arizona State over/under: 54.5 (-110o / -110u)
- TCU vs Arizona State moneyline: TCU +125, Arizona St -150
TCU vs Arizona State Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Electric Offense and Improved Defense
A monster game in the Big 12 takes place on Friday: two of the top three favorites to win the Big 12 Championship square off.
TCU is off to a 3-0 start and coming off a 35-24 win over SMU in the Iron Skillet. The Horned Frogs have an electric offense and have climbed up to No. 24 in the AP Poll.
Quarterback Josh Hoover threw for 3,949 yards with 27 touchdowns last season and currently leads the country with 333.3 passing yards per game. He has already tossed 11 touchdowns while cutting down his turnover-worthy play rate. Hoover is capable of carving up any defense and is one of the best signal callers in the nation.
Even after losing a trio of talented receivers in JP Richardson, Savion Williams, and 1,000-yard receiver Jack Bech, the Frogs’ passing attack has not missed a beat. Eric McAlister is a stud and is averaging over 100 yards per game, while Jordan Dwyer is a sure-handed target. McAlister torched SMU for 254 yards and three touchdowns last week.
TCU does not look to run the ball a ton, but the Frogs have been much more effective when they do hand it off. Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes is out with an injury again after missing last week, but Trent Battle and Jeremy Payne looked solid against SMU. Battle averaged 8.6 yards per carry. The Frogs just need to run the ball often enough to keep the defense honest.
We saw the defense take a step forward last season in the first year under defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. The defense transitioned from being a liability to a middle-of-the-pack unit. TCU was especially strong at defending the pass, thanks to a terrific secondary.
Bud Clark and Jamel Johnson make up an elite safety duo on the back end of this defense. They have already combined for three interceptions and will be even more critical in this game with cornerback Avery Helm out with an injury.
In the middle of the field is a terrific linebacker corps of Namdi Obiazor and Kaleb Elarms-Orr, along with star Devean Deal on the edge. TCU struggled to create Havoc last season, but that has not been an issue this year, as the Frogs rank third nationally in that stat.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Vulnerable Against the Pass
Coming off a magical run to a Big 12 Championship and College Football Playoff appearance, Arizona State had a massive target on its back after catching teams off guard last season.
The Sun Devils lost a heartbreaker to Mississippi State in Week 2, but they have rebounded nicely with wins over Texas State and Baylor.
The biggest question for the Sun Devils entering the season was how they would replace star running back Cam Skattebo. So far, the answer has been to feed Jordyn Tyson. Last year’s leading receiver put up over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns before suffering a season-ending injury in the regular season finale.
Through three games, Tyson has hauled in 31 catches for 357 yards and five touchdowns. He has 47.7% of the Sun Devils' receiving yards this season and five of quarterback Sam Leavitt’s six touchdown passes.
Coming into the season, Leavitt was being talked about as a possible first-round draft pick, but he has not looked the part so far. He has really struggled, except for finding Tyson. Leavitt has six touchdowns to three interceptions and already has more turnover-worthy plays than he did all of last season. He ranks 13th among Big 12 quarterbacks in passing yards per game.
Leavitt has upped his rushing output this year, though, averaging 54.8 yards per game. He already has four rushing scores. Running back Raleek Brown has been effective trying to replace Skattebo, and he is averaging 93 yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry.
The Arizona State offense got all the attention last year, but the defense was the driving force of its magical run. The Sun Devils improved as the season progressed and had the best run defense in the Big 12. Nine starters returned on defense, but they have not been as stout this year.
The run defense remains strong, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, but the pass defense has been somewhat leaky. Arizona State has allowed eight passing touchdowns on the year, the most in the Big 12, which is problematic against this TCU offense. Making matters worse, starting defensive backs Xavion Alford and Montana Warren are both out for this game.
Linebackers Keyshaun Elliott and Jordan Cook are the key to this defense. They are tackling machines against the run, and also rank first and second on the team in sacks.
Edge rusher Clayton Smith is extremely important to this game, as he leads the Sun Devils in quarterback pressures and will need to get after Hoover on Friday.
TCU vs Arizona State Pick, Betting Analysis
These two teams have not met since 1975, and the winner on Friday night will have a massive advantage in the Big 12 Championship game race.
TCU has plenty of experience playing on Fridays, but this will mark its first trip to Arizona since a 2022 CFP win over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.
While Arizona State made its way to the conference championship last year, two main areas held TCU back. The Frogs struggled to run the ball effectively, and they couldn’t stop the run.
They are never going to put up a ton of yards due to lack of volume, but the Horned Frogs are averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the ground this season, up from just 3.7 last year. That difference is all they need to help keep defenses honest.
Hoover and the TCU passing attack have been tremendous this season. Hoover can make any throw on the field and has reduced his turnover-worthy play rate. He has been excellent when kept clean, and this is a great matchup for him.
Arizona State ranks 76th nationally in Pressure rate, and the Horned Frogs' offensive line has done a terrific job giving Hoover time to throw. TCU ranks top 10 in preventing Havoc, and Hoover has been sacked just twice.
If Hoover has a clean pocket, he and McAlister will be able to pick apart this Sun Devils defense that has been pitiful at defending the pass. ASU’s eight passing touchdowns allowed are the most in the Big 12, and the Devils rank 72nd nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Situationally, Arizona State has the advantage, with TCU heading out West on a short week following an emotional win in the final meeting against its biggest rival. But this line is overcompensating for that a bit.
TCU has been the better team this season, and even if you give the Sun Devils a slight extra home-field advantage bump for the situation, I still make the Horned Frogs a slight favorite.
Pick: TCU +3 (-110, bet365)
