The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, AL. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by -8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. The total is set at 59 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Alabama prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.
Tennessee vs Alabama Prediction
Tennessee vs. Alabama Pick: Tennessee +8.5
My Alabama vs. Tennessee best bet is on the Volunteers spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tennessee vs Alabama Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | -310 |
- Tennessee vs Alabama Spread: Alabama -8
- Tennessee vs Alabama Total: 59 points
- Tennessee vs Alabama ML: Tennessee +250, Alabama -310
Tennessee vs Alabama Preview
Tennessee Betting Preview: Offense Much Better
It’s the third Saturday in October, and that means the Tennessee Volunteers will travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium for their annual matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Vols are 5-1 on the year, ranked No. 11 in the country and looking to beat Alabama for the third time in four years.
The offseason quarterback musical chairs has worked out just fine for the Vols, as the offense is averaging 12.5 more points per game and a full yard per play more than it did last season.
Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar leads the SEC with 1,680 passing yards and has thrown 14 touchdowns with five interceptions. His 9.2 yards per attempt are second in the conference among qualified quarterbacks.
It's important to note that Aguilar had eight touchdowns and an interception in three games against non-conference opponents, but he's been limited to six touchdowns with four interceptions against SEC defenses.
Either way, this passing attack is more dangerous than it was last year, and the Volunteers are able to push the ball down the field more effectively.
Chris Brazzell II has been the best target and is one of the top deep ball threats in the country. Brazzell is averaging 16.8 yards per reception and is second in the country with seven touchdown receptions.
With last year’s bell-cow running back Dylan Sampson off to the NFL, the Vols have gone with a split backfield approach this year. DeSean Bishop and Star Thomas have shared carries this year and have both been effective, along with Peyton Lewis near the goal line.
Bishop is averaging a conference-best 7.6 yards per carry, and the three of them have combined for 14 touchdowns on the ground.
Tennessee’s defense was its calling card last season, but it's taken a bit of a step back this season. The Vols rank just 78th in Success Rate allowed on defense and have especially struggled at defending the run.
SEC teams are averaging 213.7 rushing yards per game this season, and Tennessee has allowed 13 rushing scores on the year, with ranks 115th in the country.
The strength of this defense has been its elite pass rush. Tennessee has 26 sacks in just six games and leads the country with more than four sacks per game.
It’s not just one guy dominating, too; it's been the entire group up front. Joshua Josephs, Tyre West, Dominic Bailey and Caleb Herring all have at least three sacks this year.
This unit needs to put pressure on an Alabama passing attack that's clicking on all cylinders right now.
Alabama Betting Preview: Defense Not As Good As Expected
After a stunning loss at Florida State to begin the season, the Crimson Tide have bounced back to rattle off five straight wins, including three straight against top-20 teams in Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri.
They're up to No. 6 in the country and are the current betting favorite to win the SEC title.
Quarterback Ty Simpson stumbled out of the gate in his first start, but he's been tremendous ever since. He's completing 71% of his passes with 16 touchdown passes and just one turnover.
Unlike Aguilar, he's continued to light up SEC defenses and has cemented himself as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.
Alabama has a trio of talented wide receivers in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton. It’s unclear if Williams is dealing with some sort of injury, as he hasn't quite looked like himself — or at least as dynamic as he did last season.
But Bernard has stepped up, and this group can still shred any defense in the country.
The one area of weakness for the Crimson Tide has surprisingly been the running game. We're so used to this team churning out NFL running backs, but the Tide rank just 83rd in Rush Success Rate and only one team in the SEC has fewer rushing touchdowns this year.
Running back Jam Miller is the top guy, but he missed the first three games with an injury and then left last week with a concussion and spent this week in the concussion protocol. He's questionable for Saturday, which would be a big loss, as the backups are all underclassmen who haven't been effective.
Kane Wommack fielded an elite defense and was expected to have one of the best units in the country again this year. They've been very good, but perhaps not as unflappable as expected coming into the season.
After ranking in the top 20 in Success Rate allowed against the run and pass last year, they rank inside the top 40 in both this season. The Success Rate overall has been solid, but the big issue has been at preventing big plays.
The Crimson Tide rank 126th in Rushing Explosiveness and 135th in Passing Explosiveness. This defense is obviously loaded with talent, but it's had too many coverage breakdowns and is allowing way too many big plays. The Tide have allowed 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards, the second most in the SEC.
Tennessee vs Alabama Pick, Betting Analysis
Tennessee hasn't had much luck in Bryant-Denny Stadium, and while I don’t expect it to pull off the upset, this feels like too many points.
Alabama’s defense is terrific, but it's not as dominant as we thought it would be or as it was last season. The Tide struggle to prevent big plays, and that's an area Tennessee can take advantage.
Josh Huepel is elite at scheming up open receivers. Aguilar has the second most 50+ passing plays in the SEC this season and Bishop and Thomas are both capable of breaking off a big run.
This will be the best passing attack Alabama has faced all season and the first team that can really spread the Tide out vertically. Brazzell should be able to get behind this secondary and break a big one.
Alabama has been cooking on offense and Simpson looks great, but this is still a very good Tennessee defense, and the Crimson Tide have become more one-dimensional than we're used to. They haven't been able to run the ball all season and Miller’s status is questionable in this one.
Tennessee gets pressure on the quarterback better than anybody in the country. If Alabama isn't able to run the ball, the Vols' front is going to be able to pin its ears back knowing the pass is coming.
Getting Simpson to the ground is the key for Tennessee to slow down this offense.
I think Alabama is the best team in the SEC, but not by this much. I’ll take Tennessee at +8 or better.
Pick: Tennessee +8.5 (Play to +8)
