The Texas A&M Aggies take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin on Friday, Nov. 28. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas A&M is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Texas, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Texas A&M vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 28.
Texas A&M vs Texas Prediction
- Texas A&M vs. Texas Pick: Over 51.5 · Texas +2.5 or Better · KC Concepcion Anytime TD (+115)
My Texas vs. Texas A&M best bets are on both teams to go over the total, the Longhorns to cover the spread and WR KC Concepcion to score a touchdown. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas A&M vs Texas Odds
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
- Texas A&M vs Texas Spread: Texas A&M -2.5, Texas +2.5
- Texas A&M vs Texas Over/Under: 51.5 Points
- Texas A&M vs Texas Moneyline: Texas A&M -130, Texas +110
Texas A&M vs Texas College Football Betting Preview
Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview: Count on Dual-Threat Offense
There's plenty of motivation for Texas A&M to compete in this game despite the buffer built in to make the College Football Playoff.
The Aggies lost to the Longhorns last year and haven't taken a game from "big brother" since 2010.
Head coach Mike Elko will look to remain undefeated and head to the SEC Championship with one of the best offenses in the nation.
The Aggies are more run than pass, but the majority of explosives come from a passing game led by quarterback Marcel Reed.
Wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver are the most dangerous duo of any passing game in college football, averaging 2.9 and 3.6 yards per route run, respectively.
Elko has seen improvement from his 4-2-5 defense this season, evolving into a top-15 team in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
No run concept has an advantage against the Aggies' run-stoppers, but fundamentals in tackling have continued to contribute to opponent explosives. Texas A&M ranks 135th in Rush EPA allowed, as most offenses have exceeded the national average of 44% available yards.
The issues with opponent scoring have crept up in a number of high-scoring affairs. Texas A&M sits outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives allowed and 130th in opponent red-zone scoring.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Arch Manning on the Rise
Texas finally broke a series of close wins with a 50-burger trouncing of Arkansas in Week 13.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has had a bumpy offensive road in 2025, falling outside the top 90 in Success Rate and ranking as a bottom-five team in rush explosives.
Quarterback Arch Manning has had a midseason renaissance, throwing for 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions over the past four games. The former five-star recruit has thrown for more than 300 yards against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Arkansas over the past month.
One sign of improvement is his reduction of mistakes. Manning has posted a turnover-worthy play in just one of his past five showings.
The Longhorns have been excellent as a rush defense but have shown cracks against the pass. Georgia defeated Texas thanks to a 55% Success Rate on 31 passing attempts and generating five explosives at 7.3 yards per play.
The Horns rank 79th in defending pass explosives with extreme weaknesses against hitch, slant and out routes. However, opponents using wide receiver screens and crossing routes have had the most failures.
Texas A&M vs Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
The first handicap in the Lone Star Showdown revolves around the Texas defense stopping Texas A&M's elite passing attack.
The Longhorns have been fantastic against wide receiver screens and crossing routes, two of the most utilized routes by the Aggies.
Reed has been middle-of-the-pack in terms of success against Cover 1, a coverage package heavily used by Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.
Texas also fields a much better defense in tackle grading and broken tackles allowed, sitting top-12 of all FBS teams in both categories.
The same can't be said about a Texas A&M defense with poor tackling analytics that include a rank outside the top 100 in broken tackles allowed.
Manning will see plenty of Cover 3 from the Aggies, which could force shorter routes in the slot to DeAndre Moore Jr., who averages an explosive 2.2 yards per route run.
Second-level tackling will allow the Longhorns to get into scoring position, an area where both teams have struggled. Texas' offense and Texas A&M's defense both rank outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives.
The best avenue for scoring could be Manning's pass explosives, with the Horns ranking 10th in Pass EPA. Methodicals may be out of question for the Texas offense, as the A&M defense ranks top-25 in limiting quality drives.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for Texas A&M to be favored by two points, in line with the current market.
Any move on the number back to +3 would be a buy on the Longhorns, but there may be room for purchase in the total market.
The Aggies and Longhorns each have advantages with pass explosives. Texas A&M will be limited in crossers and wide receiver screens, but the Aggies' most utilized and advantageous route is the hitch.
There may not be a better hitch or curl route runner in the nation than Concepcion, who has posted a receiving touchdown in 7-of-11 Texas A&M games this season.
Pick: Over 51.5 · Texas +2.5 or Better · KC Concepcion Anytime TD (+115)
Texas A&M vs Texas Betting Trends
