NCAAF Odds, Picks for Texas State vs. Southern Miss

Texas State hits the road to face Southern Miss Saturday night down in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, for a Sun Belt Conference contest.

The Bobcats can match their win total from last season with a victory here, pushing their record to 4-1.

Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles have struggled out of the gate, losing three straight to sit at 1-3.

The visitors are slated as the betting favorite in this matchup, but I’m unsure the spread is large enough in this Week 5 game.

GJ Kinne isn't getting enough praise for his efforts at Texas State.

The first-year coach brought in 50 newcomers during the offseason, many coming from the transfer portal. It hasn’t taken long to see the benefits of the additions to the roster.

To open the year, Texas State won at Baylor as 27-point underdogs, one of the biggest upsets ever. Kinne’s team has since added victories over Jackson State and Nevada.

The wins are accompanied by a high-flying offense that ranks among the top 15 nationally in Pass Success Rate and seconds per play.

If this continues, the Bobcats could make a bowl game for the first time in program history.

With all of the excitement for TSU, the same can’t be said for coach Will Hall. The former Tulane offensive coordinator hasn't had much success this year.

For starters, the Golden Eagles’ impact running back — Frank Gore Jr. — only averages 4.2 yards per carry, much less than the 6.1 he averaged in 2022.

It doesn’t help that he's behind an offensive line that ranks 120th in Line Yards.

Meanwhile, Billy Wiles hasn't provided stability and consistency at the quarterback position, completing just 54% of his passes.

Even with all of the offensive struggles, you still would've expected Southern Miss to be tough on defense. But it's hard to do so when you're on the field most of the game.

Fans can forgive you for losing to Tulane and No. 5 Florida State. When you lose as a seven-point favorite at Arkansas State, though, getting those fans back on your side is tough.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas State and Southern Miss match up statistically:

Texas State Offense vs. Southern Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	32	40
Line Yards	31	107
Pass Success	13	72
Havoc	88	66
Finishing Drives	8	95
Quality Drives	32	118

Southern Miss Offense vs. Texas State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	95	37
Line Yards	120	33
Pass Success	116	83
Havoc	66	9
Finishing Drives	81	70
Quality Drives	83	97

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	81	115
PFF Coverage	62	94
Special Teams SP+	11	77
Middle 8	45	129
Seconds per Play	23.7 (15)	28.8 (99)
Rush Rate	55.0% (59)	48.9% (98)

No matter how you want to compare the two teams, it's pretty clear that Texas State is the better football team. It can be painful to back a road favorite, but I think the Bobcats should be favored by more.

So, my best bet is to back the visitors at -5.5 at BetMGM, which I would bet up to -7.

If you want to stop Kinne’s offense, you have to be able to defend the pass. Well, Southern Miss is 72nd in Pass Success Rate Allowed and 94th in Pro Football Focus' coverage ratings.

The Bobcats are also in the top 10 in Finishing Drives on offense, whereas the Golden Eagles are 95th on the defensive side of the ball.

So, the question is, can USM string together drives to keep the Bobcats’ offense off the field? Texas State is vulnerable against the pass, but Southern Miss is 116th in Pass Success Rate.

Coach Hall has to establish his rushing attack to shorten this game at home. However, TSU ranks top-40 nationally in both Rush Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.

Add in that the Bobcats are also better at tackling and special teams, and I struggle to see how USM is competitive here.