The Texas State Bobcats take on the UTSA Roadrunners in San Antonio, Texas. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UTSA is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -178. The total is set at 65.5 points.
Here’s my Texas State vs. UTSA prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Texas State vs UTSA Prediction
- Texas State vs. UTSA Pick: Texas State +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
My UTSA vs. Texas State best bet is on the Bobcats to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas State vs UTSA Odds
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Texas State vs UTSA point spread: UTSA -3.5 (-110), Texas St +3.5 (-110)
- Texas State vs UTSA over/under: 64.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Texas State vs UTSA moneyline: Texas St +140, UTSA -170
Texas State vs UTSA Preview
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Texas State began its final campaign in the Sun Belt with an explosive victory over Eastern Michigan.
Junior Wide Receiver Beau Sparks led the way with four touchdowns. He was helped by First Responder Bowl MVP Lincoln Pare, who tallied 187 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
They weren't the only ones running wild, as the rest of the offense combined to run for 392 yards at 10.1 yards per carry.
The offense was among the most efficient in the country, ranking 13th nationally in success rate and 11th in Offensive Finishing Drives, mostly due to clean football. The Bobcats kept the pocket clean and avoided turnovers, ranking 29th in Havoc allowed.
The defensive side of the field left much to be desired, however.
As efficient as their offense was, their defense was almost as leaky. The Bobcats rank 111th nationally in PPA Allowed and 113th in Success Rate allowed.
Specifically, their problems were much worse against the rush. No team in America had a more polarizing game on the ground than Texas State on Saturday:
Shockingly, the passing game was almost as polarizing.
The Bobcats didn't throw the ball often, but they were effective through the air. Quarterback Brad Jackson had himself a game, throwing for over 200 yards and four touchdowns.
However, they were just as ineffective against the pass.
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview
While Texas State had a Group of 5 opener, UTSA went straight into the belly of the beast.
The Roadrunners took on the Aggies in what ended up being a one-sided affair, losing 42-24 on the road.
UTSA can thank Robert Henry Jr. for keeping them in the game, breaking off a 75-yard touchdown run en route to a 177-yard, two-touchdown performance.
While he got roughly half the offensive carries, the receptions were spread around a bit more, with nine Roadrunners catching a pass.
Unfortunately, that was probably the highlight of the day for quarterback Owen McCown, who posted a rough 49.6 PFF Offensive grade. However, there is a ton of room for optimism moving forward, as he posted an 81.4 grade on a much larger sample size last year (950 snaps).
Despite the gaudy rushing numbers Henry put up, the numbers look bleak on the ground. While they ranked first nationally in rushing explosiveness and 41st in rushing PPA, a significant portion of that was attributed to Henry's long score.
When looking at Success Rate, they rank 117th.
While Texas State may not have the same level of talent in the passing attack as A&M, they may be able to move the ball on a Roadrunners secondary that looked brutal last week.
Texas State vs UTSA Pick, Betting Analysis
This is the ultimate test of whether playing an opener against a juggernaut is a good idea for a Group of 5 team.
While I think the Roadrunners will likely make improvements and emerge as a better team after their loss at Kyle Field, I also believe Texas State will have too much firepower for them to contain.
I'm going to take Texas State +3.5 and sprinkle the moneyline as well.
Pick: Texas State +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
