The No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) take on the No. 11 BYU Cougars (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) in the Big 12 Conference Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6, at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas Tech, which enters as a -12.5 favorite, has won its last 5 games by double digits and is coming off a 49-0 shutout of West Virginia to end the regular season with an 11-1 record.
That game was essentially a microcosm of the Red Raiders' season. Texas Tech has been the best team in the conference thus far, leading the Big 12 in scoring offense (43.2 points per game), total offense (489.2 yards per game), scoring defense (11.3) and total defense (258.9).
Now, it has a chance to prove it by winning the Big 12 Championship.
Standing in its way is a BYU team that matches the Red Raiders' 11-1 record. However, these teams met once this season, and Texas Tech emerged victorious with a 29-7 win in Lubbock.
Will we see more of the same in this rematch, or can the Cougars turn the tables and keep it close?
We polled 8 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Texas Tech vs. BYU picks and college football predictions for the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6.
Texas Tech vs. BYU Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Texas Tech -12.5
Our staff is predicting Texas Tech to finish out its season of dominance with a double-digit win in the Big 12 Championship game, and I wholeheartedly agree.
Aside from one game against Arizona State with their backup quarterback, the Red Raiders have won every game this season by 22 points or more. Coincidentally, the Cougars are the team that kept the margin of loss to 22.
It’s no surprise Texas Tech has ripped through the Big 12 when fully healthy. This is one of the most dominant, if not the most dominant, team of the decade in the Big 12 (once again, when healthy).
The Red Raiders rank:
- 3rd in PFF Overall Grade
- 16th in PFF Offensive Grade
- 1st in PFF Defensive Grade
- 1st in PFF Pass Rush Grade
- 1st in PFF Coverage Grade
While BYU certainly isn't a bad football team, we’ve seen this script before already.
The Cougars scored just seven points in the first meeting, and I don’t see that improving by much. The Red Raiders forced three turnovers, and I expect a similar defensive performance.
Give me the Red Raiders to cover this spread; I think it should certainly be two touchdowns.
Texas Tech vs. BYU Over/Under Pick
Over 49.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 3 Picks |
Under 49.5 | 3 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 49.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff was quite split on this one, with the majority leaning under, which I agree with.
We saw the formula for Texas Tech on defense in the first meeting that ended in a 29-7 Red Raiders win. TTU dominated the box score and completely shut down what the Cougars wanted to do offensively.
This Texas Tech defense is flat-out nasty, ranking first in the country in yards per rush allowed, fourth in preventing explosive plays and sixth nationally in Havoc. All three of these elements played out in the first meeting.
BYU couldn't run the ball in that first matchup (67 yards rushing, 2.5 YPC), and it isn't going to be able to move the ball on the ground this time either.
The Tech front seven is excellent at making the opposition uncomfortable in passing situations, and the pass rush has been elite all season. Texas Tech has generated 37 sacks and 89 tackles for loss.
David Bailey and Romello Height lead the unit, and those two have combined for 21.5 sacks. They'll undoubtedly be a factor here.
The Tech offense has been efficient this season, but the Red Raiders haven't played with the blazing tempo we've seen in prior years. The run/pass splits are also much more balanced.
We've seen Tech lean on its ground attack this year, and the 1-2 punch of Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams forms a very effective duo.
The BYU defense should be expected to show up here, as this unit has been consistently reliable this season. The Cougars rank 25th nationally in preventing explosives, 30th in Success Rate allowed and eighth in redzone efficiency.
We saw BYU limit Tech to four red-zone field goals in the last meeting, and its ability to bow up in the red zone will be crucial for the under in this one.
I can't imagine the Red Raiders are going to do anything in the second half to jeopardize the health of quarterback Behren Morton, with backup Will Hammond already out for the year.
There's a significant drop-off between Morton and Mitch Griffis, so the game plan has to be to secure a double-digit lead in the second half and grind that fourth-quarter clock down as quickly as possible.
Texas Tech vs. BYU Team Total Pick
BYU Team Total Under 18.5
By Joshua Nunn
I just don't see a path to BYU scoring three times in this one.
We saw the formula play out for TTU in the meeting earlier in the season. It has to stop the run and limit the productivity in the passing game while making BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier uncomfortable.
I fully expect this game plan to be executed in the Big 12 Championship. BYU won't be able to run the ball on this TTU front, and it'll be forced into long downs and distances routinely. Not the place you want to be against the Red Raiders.
Only two teams have exceeded 17 points against the Red Raiders this season. I don't have confidence in Bachmeier and the BYU passing game to throw the ball against one of the elite secondaries in FBS.
Don’t overthink this one; there's too big a talent disparity here between the BYU skill-position players and TTU at all three levels of the defense.
Texas Tech vs. BYU Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -525 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
Texas Tech vs. BYU Spread: Texas Tech -12.5, BYU +12.5
Texas Tech vs. BYU Over/Under: 49.5
Texas Tech vs. BYU Moneyline: Texas Tech -525, BYU +400
