The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, Kansas. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EDT on FOX.
Texas Tech is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here’s my Texas Tech vs. Kansas State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1, 2025.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Prediction
- Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Pick: Kansas State +7 or Better | Kansas State ML (For smaller, .42 units)
My Kansas State vs. Texas Tech best bet is on backing the Wildcats in two ways. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| K State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Texas Tech vs Kansas State point spread: Texas Tech -7 (-110), Kansas State +7 (-110)
- Texas Tech vs Kansas State over/under: 52.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Texas Tech vs Kansas State moneyline: Texas Tech -290, Kansas State +235
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Preview
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview
Before dropping its lone game of the season at Arizona State, Texas Tech cracked the AP top 10 for the first time since 2008 under Mike Leach.
This roster – bolstered by an injection of NIL funding from wealthy donors – is likely the Big 12's most talented.
Quarterback Behren Morton missed a few games but is reportedly good to go moving forward. In his place, touted recruit Will Hammond played exceptionally, but his season was cut short due to a season-ending injury suffered against Oklahoma State. Hammond joins top back Quinten Joyner and starting linebacker Mike Pringle on the season-ending list.
Tech under Morton hasn't just been winning games; it's been leaving little doubt about the outcome. The Raiders rank fifth nationally in net available yards (+27.6%) and seventh in net yards per play (+2.24).
Game against 7-1 Houston on the road? 35-11 and 552 total yards of offense generated.
How about at 6-2 Utah? 34-10 that was blown open in the fourth quarter with 484 offensive yards.
Tech blows teams out behind a sound offense that doesn't turn the ball over often and a vicious defense that's held opponents to the fewest points per drive in the country. The top three graded defenders in the Big 12 – linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, pass rusher Romello Height, and transfer David Bailey – and four of the top six all play for Tech, and they all play up front.
It's a truly devastating combination: an aggressive defense, a ferocious pass rush, and a sound offense that scores with top-30 efficiency on each drive.
The Red Raiders cast doubt on the assessments of good teams like Utah and Houston by laying waste to them on the road.
You can likely pencil them in for the Big 12 Championship and clear your schedule for their next two Big 12 matchups.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview
Among the preseason favorites, Kansas State came out of the gate and lost games to Iowa State (in Ireland), Army, and Arizona.
It took a field goal to stave off FCS North Dakota narrowly. So, at 1-3 overall and 0-3 against the FBS, Kansas State was cast into the pile of recent Ireland losers who tanked their season alongside Florida State (2024) and Navy (2023).
But since their first bye, the Wildcats did turn things around. They throttled TCU, 41-28, at home, beat UCF, and lost to Baylor by one point in a wild game.
The second bye comes and goes, and Kansas State beats rival Kansas, 42-17, in Lawrence.
Quarterback Avery Johnson has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions, plus five more scores on the ground and more sporadic fumbles.
The biggest adjustment came to the early dependence on running back Dylan Edwards, who has largely been absent from the lineup this year due to injury. Johnson is trusted a bit more through the air and is always given the green light to scramble – his most lethal ability.
Head coach Chris Kleiman and coordinator Matt Wells simplified the playbook a bit, which has helped Johnson become more decisive and more effective. As a result, Kansas State is scoring nearly 31 offensive points per game after the initial bye (23.5 before, with four touchdowns coming via defense).
Don't chalk it up only to the schedule, either. The average power of opponents faced increased from 50.7 to 44th between its 1-3 stretch and 3-1 stretch, per aggregated industry power ratings.
The defense still has some kinks to iron out, particularly in explosive play rate. But holding opponents to 24.4 points per game can be enough to win plenty of games with this highly potent offense.
This is a team I'm looking to back until the market value reflects my current assessment of the team.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
There are two schools of thought when it comes to this game:
- Kansas State is much better than the start of the year suggested, more in line with preseason expectations
- Texas Tech just is that good
The truth almost certainly lies somewhere in the middle.
While some of Kansas State's scoring numbers are fluky, this is a team playing more in line with its preseason expectations after bye week No. 2 than its first four weeks. It's not at the level of a full-on Big 12 favorite, but it's far superior to losing to Army.
Texas Tech's money spent this offseason is also showing brightly. The injection of transfer talent and subsequent addition of high-caliber recruits have turned this into a legitimate national contender.
Manhattan is a tricky place to play. Kansas State is 18-4 outright at home since the start of 2022, including 4-1 outright as a home underdog (1-0 this year, beating TCU as a slim 1.5-point 'dog in Week 8).
This is Tech's third road game in five weeks, and one just ahead of a massive home showdown with top-10 BYU.
Texas Tech hasn't beaten Kansas State outright since 2015 and not in Manhattan since 2008. This is an exceptional Tech team, but keep in mind the difficulty of playing at Bill Snyder Family Stadium (K-State is 14-6 ATS as a home 'dog since 2015).
Pick: Kansas State +7 or Better | Kansas State ML (For smaller, 0.42 units)
