The Tulane Green Wave (10-2, 7-1 American) take on the North Texas Mean Green (11-1, 7-1 American) in the American Conference Championship on Friday, Dec. 5, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
North Texas, which enters as a -2.5 favorite, has won 6 straight games by double digits and is coming off a 52-25 trouncing of Temple to end the regular season with an 11-1 record.
The Mean Green pose a significant challenge for Tulane, leading the nation in scoring offense (46.8 points per game) and total offense (511.8 yards per game).
Speaking of the Green Wave, they just dominated Charlotte, 27-0, last week. Tulane won 2 of its 3 games against Power 4 competition this season, toppling Northwestern, 23-3, to open the season and beating Duke, 34-27.
So, who holds the advantage in this American Conference Championship?
Let's take a look at our staff's Tulane vs. North Texas picks and college football predictions for the American Championship on Friday, Dec. 5.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: North Texas -2.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is in lockstep with North Texas being the consensus pick to cover the short number on the road.
Generally, you'd go broke quickly betting against Tulane at home, but this is not the same Green Wave team that we've come to know and love over the last couple of seasons.
The Tulane offense has been so jerky all season, relying heavily on heroic efforts from quarterback Jake Retzlaff to create with his legs on the ground in addition to the passing game.
Tulane ranks just 71st nationally in Rushing Success Rate, and Retzlaff is the team’s leading rusher. However, he has just five rushing yards total over the last three games.
Tulane has been on cruise control the last three weeks leading up to the AAC Championship while facing some of the worst defenses in the conference in FAU, Temple and Charlotte.
I imagine that the offense faces some challenges here against a very improved Mean Green defensive front in Year 1 under defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity.
North Texas' defensive rushing stats don’t look overly impressive, but the Mean Green have faced Army, Navy, Rice and South Florida this season — all of whom boast potent rush offenses.
Many of the yards surrendered came in the second half with the outcome already decided and North Texas working in its second platoon on defense. I expect this defense to control the line of scrimmage and make it tough for Tulane to operate.
On the other side, North Texas leads the country in scoring offense, averaging 46.8 points and 512 yards per game.
While I believe the Tulane defense will provide some resistance, the secondary isn't strong enough to fully contain UNT's offensive operation.
North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker should have adequate time to deliver the ball, and I expect him to use short, high-percentage throws to set up deep shots.
The Mean Green offensive line has been excellent all season in preventing Havoc, allowing just 13 sacks on 400 dropbacks. Tulane has generated pressure and Havoc this season, but that has predominantly come against the weaker teams in league play.
I think the pass rush will be neutralized and that UNT will keep Mestemaker upright.
This will be a really fun game on Friday night, and I expect it to be close throughout. However, North Texas has the better and more explosive offense, and its defense will secure enough stops in key moments to deliver a cover.
Over/Under Pick
Over 67.5 | 1 Pick |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 67.5 | 5 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 67.5
While our staff here is heavy on the under, I'll come clean. I was our lone vote on the over. And my reasoning is simple: Both of these offenses will stay ahead of the chains and finish inside the red zone.
Head coach Jon Sumrall leads Tulane onto its home field for the last time in his fourth conference championship game in as many years.
One look at his offense is enough to tell you why Florida fans should be excited.
While the Mean Green have an above-average (but not elite) ranking of 40th in Offensive Success Rate, they also keep their offense out of trouble, ranking 21st in Havoc allowed. They're also disciplined, racking up the ninth-fewest penalty yards per game. This has led to a ranking of 40th in standard down rate.
On the other side, the Mean Green have excelled at staying in front of the chains, ranking eighth in standard down rate. That's no surprise with the tird-best Offensive Success Rate in that nation.
Not only do they move the ball with ease, but they're also the best offense in the country when it comes to taking advantage of scoring opportunities. They also rank sixth in Havoc allowed and 22nd in plays per minute.
We're seeing two great Group of 5 teams compete for the College Football Playoff. Expect both teams to stay ahead of the chains and capitalize on opportunities in their opponents’ territory.
Team Total Pick
Tulane Team Total Under 33.5
By Road to CFB
Just a quick check on the math and how our staff forecasts, and this already presents itself as a solid bet.
Tulane enters as a +2.5 underdog in a game with a total set at 67.5. Our staff leans strongly toward North Texas -2.5 and under 66.5 (away from the movement).
The projected final, given the current appraisal, is North Texas 35, Tulane 32.5. So, either Tulane is going to cover the +2.5, or over this total will hit — but our staff (and myself included) disagrees with either notion.
Tulane reached 33 points four times this year: at Tulsa (97th in Points Per Drive allowed), at Memphis (53rd), against FAU (130th) and at Temple (101st).
On the season, North Texas checks in at 72nd in Points Per Drive allowed, but no opponent has crossed 27 points since Week 7. Even potent offenses like Navy (17 points) and UTSA (17) were held to peanuts.
Two of its last three opponents, UAB and Temple, both had to score garbage-time points to even cross 20. This is an opportunistic defense that’s improved massively.
Now, I get it. A book can’t hang a North Texas -13.5 in this situation, and it can’t post a total under 60. The math works out where Tulane has to have a point total of 32.5.
But this is an offense I’m not overly impressed with, and North Texas’ defense is significantly improved. If I take a survey of our staff bets, then Tulane is going under its team total. That’s where I side, too.
Tulane vs. North Texas Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 67.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 67.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
- Tulane vs. North Texas Spread: Tulane +2.5, North Texas -2.5
- Tulane vs. North Texas Over/Under: 67.5
- Tulane vs. North Texas Moneyline: Tulane ML +110, North Texas ML -130
