As I sat in Lambeau Field last Sunday, I got a text from a friend that said the opener for UCF vs. Pitt was way off my number.
Sure enough it was, and a wager in The Action Network app on Pitt soon followed. Our projections make this game less the a field goal, a good touchdown off other respected ratings projections.
There has been some wonkiness with the Panthers' point spreads the past few weeks. I took a bad but winning number in Pitt -6.5 against Ohio, only to see it close -4.
We backed the Panthers at +17 in Week 3 against Penn State in a game that was much closer than that.
Either the Action Network power ratings are way ahead of schedule on Pitt or the other power ratings systems have not caught up. I like to think we were properly high on the hiring of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple.
Pittsburgh goes down, 17-10 in a tough-fought one against Penn State.
Kenny Pickett threw for 372 yards in the loss.#H2P | @Pitt_FBpic.twitter.com/sleVMIQRpc
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) September 14, 2019
Enter Central Florida, which is on a tear after a beating a depleted Stanford by 18, Florida Atlantic by 34 and Florida A&M 62-0.
The Knights have one of the best yards per play differentials, are second in first downs, and have been electric through the air.
In this same spot last year, Pitt was boatraced in the first half 31-7 at Central Florida.
Pitt will need to stop the explosive plays from the start. The Panthers limited Penn State to a passing IsoPPP rate of 1.38 and a standard downs rate of 0.93, both strong marks.
That is sustainable, along with a sack rate that is currently 15th in the nation. Pitt has limited opponents to just a 53% completion rate, good enough to rank top 20 in the nation.
Leaning on our power ratings once again for Pitt, new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple should get more points on the board than last season's game. Expect the Pitt defense to chip in enough to get the cover.
Pick: Pitt +11 or better
