UMass vs Eastern Michigan Odds, Prediction: Bet Saturday’s Over

From 2012-2015, the Massachusetts Minuteman were a member of the Mid-American Conference. The last two weeks have been a throwback to its days in the MAC, as they played Miami (OH) last week and Eastern Michigan the week before.

The Minutemen lost to the RedHawks, 41-28, last week to fall to 1-2 on the season. They will hit the road to Ypsilanti to battle the Eagles this week.

Eastern Michigan dropped a game to Minnesota, 25-6, to fall to 1-1 this season. However, it did narrowly cover as a 19.5-point underdog and it's also 1-1 against the spread this season.

This will be the fifth meeting in this series, which have all come since 2013. Eastern Michigan has evened up the series over the last two years, winning 42-28 in 2021 and 20-13 last season.

This week, EMU is a seven-point favorite, with the total sitting at 51 points.

In Week 0, UMass put together one of its most impressive wins in recent memory, going on the road and knocking off New Mexico State, 41-30, as a seven-point underdog. Since, it's been more of the same, as the Minutemen lost 59-14 at Auburn in addition to last week's loss to Miami (OH).

Quarterback Taisun Phommachanh sparked the win over NMSU, particularly on the ground, where he had 96 yards on the ground and a touchdown.

However, he suffered an injury at Auburn and he missed last week's game. The Minutemen do miss his presence as a runner and in the RPO game, but backup Carlos Davis has been more than capable as a passer.

In the past two games, Davis has completed 70% of his passes and has thrown for 350 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.

Running back Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams has been the primary ball carrier, as he leads the team with 237 yards on 6.3 yards per carry and two touchdowns.

A trio of transfers — Anthony Simpson (Arizona), Mark Pope (Miami) and George Johnson III — have improved Massachusetts' talent on the perimeter. Simpson leads the team with 10 catches for 188 yards and a touchdown.

Last season, Massachusetts ranked 133rd (dead last) in the FBS in scoring at 12.5 points per game. It has already upped that average to 27.7 points per game this year. Big plays in the run game have led the way, as UMass ranks 22nd in rushing play Explosiveness.

However, head coach Don Brown was a top defensive coordinator for many years and he's seeking similar improvement on that side of the ball.

Massachusetts ranks 128th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 43.3 points per game. It ranks 89th in Havoc, 129th in Success Rate overall and last in Rushing Success Rate. This week, UMass will have its hands full with Eastern Michigan's running game.

What UMass has done well this season is force turnovers, averaging two per game through its first three games. Four players have interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes.

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While Eastern Michigan scored 33 points in its season opener, it hasn't gotten off to the greatest of starts offensively. The Eagles are averaging just 4.4 yards per play and had just 152 yards of total offense at Minnesota last week.

The Golden Gophers have the best defense EMU will face this season, but the Eagles have had a hard time sustaining drives. They're converting just 36% of their third-down attempts.

Eastern Michigan's offense would be in better shape on third down — and in general — if it can get its rushing attack on track. It's averaging just 95.5 rushing yards per game and ranks 81st in Rushing Success Rate.

Star running back Samson Evans got off to a slow start against Howard — averaging a little over three yards — but he got going a bit last week, with 73 rushing yards on 11 carries.

Last season, Evans recorded 1,166 yards, 15 touchdowns and had four 100-yard games. This may be the week for him to get going this season as conference play is on the horizon.

Eastern Michigan is 113th in Passing Success Rate and 115th in Passing Explosiveness.

Quarterback Austin Smith has a touchdown, two interceptions and a sub-100 passer rating this season. More consistent play from him will give Evans a little more room to operate.

Playing against Minnesota, it's expected that the opponent will get a heavy dose of the running game. Minnesota ran the ball 56 times for 296 yards last week. However, EMU allowed over 200 rushing yards against Howard, as well, and currently sits 122nd in Rushing Success Rate.

Though EMU hasn't been called upon to defend the pass much this season, it's been stingy when necessary. It's allowing just 155.5 passing yards per game and has generated pressure with six sacks and 10 tackles for loss.

Eastern Michigan's offense has been slow out of the gate this season, but its special teams has picked up the slack, ranking fifth nationally in kick returns average.

However, this week, I expect a better showing out of the offense.

UMass is allowing over 200 yards both through the air and on the ground. Eastern Michigan is more likely to exploit UMass' run defense with Evans, but that may open up its vertical passing game, as well.

For the Minutemen, Phommachanh's status is unknown at this point, but Davis has proven capable of moving the offense down the field, with Lynch-Adams providing balance in the running game.

Additionally, Eastern Michigan's pass defense hasn't been tested much this season, so there may be a few cracks to exploit there.

Combined, four of the five games these two teams have played this season have gone over. All three of UMass' games have had 69 points or more. Additionally, one of the two recent meetings in this series had 70 points.

Here, we need only need 52 points to clear the over. Considering the trends with these teams and the clear forecast that's expected in Ypsilanti, I will be backing the over in this spot.