The UMass Minutemen take on the Ohio Bobcats in Athens, Ohio, on Tuesday, Nov. 18. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Ohio is favored by 32.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -20000. UMass, meanwhile, comes into the game as a +32.5 underdog and is +3500 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my UMass vs. Ohio prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, November 18.
UMass vs Ohio Prediction
- UMass vs. Ohio Pick: Ohio -32.5
My Ohio vs. UMass best bet is on the Bobcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UMass vs Ohio Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+32.5 -108 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +3500 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-32.5 -112 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -20000 |
- UMass vs Ohio Spread: Ohio -32.5, UMass +32.5
- UMass vs Ohio Over/Under: 51.5 Points
- UMass vs Ohio Moneyline: UMass +3500, Ohio -20000
UMass vs Ohio College Football Betting Preview
When UMass Has the Ball
If you’re laying over four touchdowns, you need two things to work in your favor: a favorite capable of sustained scoring and an underdog incapable of getting out of its own way. That’s precisely the matchup we have here.
Folks, when I tell you that UMass is bad, it's 50 times worse than that. The Minutemen are winless and got boat-raced last week by a Northern Illinois offense that's among the worst in the entire country.
Ohio grades out as the far more complete team on both sides of the ball, and UMass enters this game with metrics that signal one of the most significant mismatches on the weeknight college football board. This is going to get ugly very quickly, and this number can't get large enough.
Let’s start with the UMass offense, which has been one of the least efficient units in the country.
The Minutemen rank 135th nationally in EPA/Pass and 128th in EPA/Rush. They consistently lose early downs, ranking 126th, and face an average of 8.6 yards to go on third downs, coming in at 133rd nationally in that area.
That sets up a perfect scenario for an Ohio defense that's quietly one of the strongest statistical units UMass has faced all year.
The Bobcats rank 36th in EPA/Pass allowed, 71st in early downs EPA allowed and sit top-20 nationally in third- and fourth-down Success Rate allowed at 38.5%.
Simply put, UMass doesn't know how to move the ball forward; it only knows how to move it backward. It's far worse than the metrics suggest, which is saying something.
When Ohio Has the Ball
On the other side, the matchup gets even more brutal for UMass.
Its defense has been unable to stop explosive or efficient offenses all season, ranking 135th in EPA/Pass allowed, 132nd in available yards allowed (59.5%) and 128th in early downs EPA allowed.
That combination is a recipe for giving up scoring drives all evening long, which is the exact thing an underdog can’t afford when trying to cover a 32.5-point spread.
Ohio’s offense isn’t elite, but it's efficient enough to exploit everything UMass struggles with. The Bobcats produce a solid ranking of 61st in EPA/Pass, 47th in EPA/Pass and sustain drives with a 47.4% third-down Success Rate, tied for 30th nationally.
They also gain available yards at a top-35 clip (51.4%), which is a massive advantage against a defense that allows nearly 60% of available yards to be gained.
And while Ohio doesn’t rely on explosive plays, its ability to stay ahead of the chains against one of the nation’s worst early-down defenses sets up the exact kind of methodical scoring that builds and maintains large margins.
Quarterback Parker Navarro hasn't been his best lately, but he's been highly efficient with his legs. I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Bobs could put up 50 points without completing a forward pass.
UMass vs Ohio Pick, Betting Analysis
We also need to factor in the quit factor with UMass.
Sitting at 0-10 with no winnable games left on the schedule, how on earth are the Minutemen going to show any pride here? I'm convinced the entire team has already quit.
With Ohio’s defense forcing negative EPA situations through the air and on the ground, plus UMass’ inability to convert third downs, the Bobcats should dominate possession, scoring opportunities and tempo from start to finish.
I couldn't care less how public a play this is — Ohio is the only way to bet this game.
Pick: Ohio -32.5 (Play to -34.5)
UMass vs Ohio Betting Trends
