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UNLV vs Boise State Odds & Prediction: Bet Saturday’s Over/Under

UNLV vs Boise State Odds & Prediction: Bet Saturday’s Over/Under article feature image
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Tyler Ingham/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty.

UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos Odds

December 2
3 p.m. ET
FOX
UNLV Rebels Odds
Point SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
+2.5
-110
60.5
-115o / -105u
+115
Boise State Broncos Odds
Point SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-2.5
-110
60.5
-115o / -105u
-140
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

The Mountain West used computer rankings to select its conference championship after UNLV, Boise State and San Jose State all finished with 6-2 conference records.

The Spartans didn't accumulate enough points in the prehistoric BCS power ratings system, so the Rebels will host a rejuvenated Boise State team that fired its coach less than a month ago.

Andy Avalos was named the 2022 Mountain West Coach of the Year last season, but interim head coach Spencer Danielson may be coaching the conference championship game for his bid to be the head coach in 2024 after leading the Broncos to two consecutive victories against Utah State and Air Force.

While the former linebackers coach tries to fill the Boise State vacancy, UNLV may be on the verge of having an empty head-coaching position as well.

The Rebels were picked to finish ninth in the Mountain West under new head coach Barry Odom. UNLV had an eventful offseason, one that saw the hiring and departure of Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. Odom hit the jackpot in the search for a second coordinator, landing on Brennan Marion.

After numerous stops in FBS as an assistant, the Tulsa receiver has implemented his original "GoGo" offense at UNLV with great success.

Both Odom and Marion are being sought after for new positions, as Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas sets the scene to crown a Mountain West champion.

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UNLV Rebels

The GoGo offense first hit the radar in one of the biggest upsets in college football history when Howard beat UNLV as a 45-point underdog in Week 1 of the 2017 season.

Marion's offense includes at least three players in the backfield against defenses that run heavy in the secondary. Opponents are forced to crowd the box against 12, 21 and 22 personnel.

Multiple tight-end and running-back sets are on display with motion and no-huddle on more than 53% of snaps.

Once teams have dialed into stopping the hybrid triple option, quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrived against one-on-one coverage.

.@Only1RW hit the B button on that spin move. 😨 #BEaREBEL

📺: MWN/SSSEN pic.twitter.com/4jl10s4eUQ

— UNLV Football (@unlvfootball) November 25, 2023

However, the Rebels defense has been substandard.

As the former Arkansas defensive coordinator, Odom runs a three-man front with various nickel and dime packages with the intent of stopping explosive plays. The Rebels have been better against the run than the pass, ranking 125th in defensive pass explosives allowed.

UNLV is just outside the top 50 in stopping the run, but controlling the line of scrimmage has been a consistent issue. The Rebels haven't created enough negative plays in the backfield, ranking 125th in Defensive Stuff Rate.


Boise State Broncos

The results are in after Danielson's first two games as interim coach, as Boise State won both contests with a 100% post-game win expectancy against Utah State and Air Force.

With a season-ending injury to Maddux Madsen, quarterback Taylor Green returned to starting duty against the Aggies. The junior was less than spectacular in Week 13 against Air Force, throwing two interceptions while being a nonfactor in the rushing game.

The biggest reason for success over the past two weeks is the healthy backfield duo of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty.

ASHTON JEANTY TD

A 75-yard @BroncoSportsFB touchdown 🔥 pic.twitter.com/i1TJtt92WK

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 24, 2023

To stop the Boise State offense, shutting down rushing attempts while detecting screens and wheel routes out of the backfield is crucial.

The Broncos have been successful in zone- and man-blocking schemes while flashing explosives in power-run formations. While coordinator Bush Hamdan never found success for Green similar to 2022, Boise State ranks top-10 in Rushing Success Rate.

Avalos' firing is not only linked to a disappointing win total but also the defensive slide in all categories. Boise State comes in at 130th in tackling, per PFF, which is one of the lowest marks in program history.

The Broncos have also sustained issues stopping opponents in scoring opportunities, ranking 98th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

The Avalos scheme allowed six or fewer players in the box, often bulking up the secondary in Mountain West play. Teams running inside zone and man concepts have had the upper hand against Boise State's consistently light box.


UNLV vs Boise State

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Boise State match up statistically:

UNLV Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success9070
Line Yards7054
Pass Success1780
Havoc59108
Finishing Drives2998
Quality Drives2061
Boise State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success853
Line Yards1477
Pass Success68124
Havoc5524
Finishing Drives4385
Quality Drives4153
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling24130
PFF Coverage118104
Special Teams SP+5.25.2
Middle 82926
Seconds per Play25.4 (34)27.4 (74)
Rush Rate59.4% (23)58.4% (26)

UNLV vs Boise State

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both teams generate success and explosives through the rushing attack on offense, so the handicap for this Mountain West Championship is the ability of each defense to stop the rush.

Boise State's rushing attack is more methodical, ranking top-10 in Success Rate with an expected points rank outside the top 50. UNLV is mid-FBS in most running statistics but sits in the top 15 in rush explosives.

UNLV prefers to utilize running backs Vincent Davis Jr. and Jai'Den Thomas with inside zone through 21 personnel — two running backs and one tight end.

The lighter the box, the more success UNLV has in moving the chains and creating chunk plays.

The Boise State defense has met the national average in defending inside zone, although those numbers increase with the wrinkle of having just six defenders in the box.

The issue for the Broncos is missed tackles, a persistent issue even after Avalos' firing.

Boise State missed 23 tackles over the past two games, which is consistent with its season average. UNLV is in the top 25 in creating broken tackles, so expect the Rebels to score through explosives.

The Broncos boast a strong ground game with Holani and Jeanty using a number of run concepts.

Outside zone has been the most problematic for the Rebels defense, but every concept against the UNLV defense has created a positive number of explosive plays.

The big plays could come in early downs, as Boise State ranks 34th in explosives on standard downs against a UNLV defense that's in the bottom 15 of FBS in limiting standard down explosiveness.

Action Network projects Boise State as a short favorite, which is in alignment with the current market offering.

Explosives will be a part of the game on the fast track of Allegiant Stadium, especially with defenses that struggle to tackle and limit big plays.

Look for the the GoGo offense to take advantage of a Broncos defense that struggles to defend explosives and the red zone, just as Boise State will create scoring opportunities with Holani and Jeanty.

Pick: Over 58.5 or Better

Bet UNLV vs. Boise State in the Mountain West Championship with the latest BetMGM bonus code.

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