USF vs Navy Prediction & Pick: Best Bet for Bulls vs Midshipmen

With the focus shifting to conference play, Navy hosts South Florida in Annapolis, Maryland, Saturday afternoon for an American Athletic Conference matchup on CBS Sports Network.

The Midshipmen come into this game fresh off their bye, holding a 1-2 record after losses to No. 11 Notre Dame and Memphis.

Meanwhile, the Bulls won their AAC opener last week to enter this contest at 2-2 on the season, with defeats to WKU and No. 10 Alabama.

These two conference foes meet for the first time since 2019, and I believe we should get a battle for a vital victory in USF vs. Navy.

Read on for our USF vs Navy prediction & pick.

Coach Alex Golesh is in his debut season at USF, and he's already eclipsed last year’s win total.

The victory last week also snapped a 13-game conference losing streak and an 18-game losing skid to FBS opponents.

The former Tennessee and UCF offensive coordinator was also able to flash his new offense in the victory. The Bulls racked up 597 yards of total offense, which was the most since the 2020 game against his former team.

Meanwhile, the defense has also been solid, especially at creating pressure. The defensive unit ranks fifth nationally in tackles for loss and top-20 in sacks.

Todd Orlando’s defense only gave up one rushing yard against Rice.

This will need to continue against Navy’s ground attack.

USF isn’t the only team in the AAC boasting a first-year head coach. Brian Newberry has been with the Navy program since 2019, but this is his first season as head man.

While the Midshipmen aren’t running their typical triple option like years past, Newberry’s team is still a very run-heavy offense. Navy ranks 10th in the country at 223.3 yards per game on the ground.

The slow tempo is also still a major theme for the Naval Academy, as the Midshipmen rank 130th out of 133 teams in seconds per play on offense.

One key advantage Navy has in Saturday’s game is penalties, as the Midshpmen are top-five in fewest penalties and penalty yards per game. The Bulls rank in the bottom 10 in this area, which could come into play at some point in a tight game.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USF and Navy match up statistically:

USF Offense vs. Navy Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	97	101
Line Yards	46	44
Pass Success	126	105
Havoc	107	108
Finishing Drives	105	92
Quality Drives	90	49

Navy Offense vs. USF Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	73	73
Line Yards	72	27
Pass Success	131	84
Havoc	49	27
Finishing Drives	127	100
Quality Drives	76	77

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	123	129
PFF Coverage	106	88
Special Teams SP+	7	106
Middle 8	86	118
Seconds per Play	21.9 (4)	30.1 (114)
Rush Rate	60.0% (40)	75.9% (2)

When I look at this game, it all comes down to which team is going to be able to be more successful on the ground. I believe there are multiple metrics that favor the visitors.

So, my best bet is to back South Florida at +3 at FanDuel. If it falls below that key number, I would rather play the moneyline with the Bulls at a plus price.

On offense, USF has the edge in Line Yards and Finishing Drives. This is the same team that racked up 177 rushing yards against a stout Alabama defense.

I also trust the Bulls' defense much more than I do the Midshipmen's. South Florida ranks in the top 15 among non-Power Five teams in Success Rate and Line Yards.

Yes, USF didn't have to face Jalen Milroe, but the Crimson Tide were still held to just 310 total offensive yards in the meeting.

If there were areas that I don't like in this matchup, it's that Navy will have the rest advantage and more time to prepare for the game.

I’m also backing a first-year head coach against a triple-option team. However, Golesh’s defensive coordinator does have experience from his time back at Houston.

Navy also hasn’t faced the athlete at quarterback that USF presents in Byrum Brown, who has 357 rushing yards and five scores.

This is a game that I project closer to a pick'em, so I’ll take the better defense and the points in a conference battle.