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The Utah State Aggies take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
While the Broncos opened as 18.5-point favorites, they are now at -20.5, with the Aggies a massive underdog to pull off an outright road win.
Boise State is favored by -1700 on the moneyline, and the total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. Boise State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026.
Utah State vs Boise State Prediction
- Utah State vs. Boise State Pick: Boise State -20.5 (Play to -21)
My Boise State vs. Utah State best bet is on the Broncos to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Utah State vs Boise State Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -112 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +890 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -108 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -1700 |
- Utah State vs Boise State point spread: Utah State +20.5 (-112), Boise State -20.5 (-108)
- Utah State vs Boise State over/under: 51.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Utah State vs Boise State moneyline: Utah State +890, Boise State -1700
Utah State vs Boise State College Football Preview
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview: Underwhelming Offense
Utah State is off to a rough start to its 2026 campaign, dropping three of its first four games.
However, the Aggies enter Saturday’s Week 5 matchup with slight momentum after their first win of the season, 21-10 over Troy.
This was a huge victory for head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who's in the midst of his second year at the helm. However, Utah State still faces an uphill battle in its first season in a new-look Pac-12, as it faces a far more demanding schedule than it did in 2025.
Virginia transfer QB Grady Brosterhous has had a relatively inconsistent start to his first job as a collegiate starter, racking up 635 passing yards over the first month of the season while also throwing six interceptions.
The Aggies also lack an effective lead-back, as Brosterhous also tops the team in rushing with 222 yards.
Utah State’s offense has only two receivers with over 100 receiving yards, with fellow Virginia transfer Eli Wood leading the charge with 286 yards and three touchdowns.
The Aggies haven't been much better on defense, though they gave Washington a legitimate scare on the road, which is slightly promising for Utah State’s chances on Saturday against a far superior Boise State squad.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview: Thriving So Far
Boise State enters Saturday's matchup with plenty of momentum after three consecutive wins. That winning streak followed a phenomenal effort in Week 1 in a near-outright upset of Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks on the road.
In head coach Spencer Danielson’s third year at the helm, the Broncos have a very manageable conference schedule and will undoubtedly advance to the College Football Playoff if they go unscathed.
Boise State senior QB Maddux Madsen has been spectacular in his final year of collegiate eligibility, throwing for 814 yards and nine touchdowns without a single interception. Madsen ranks 13th in the entire country with a QBR of 85.4 this season.
In addition to Madsen’s success, the Broncos boast a rush-heavy offense, with junior RB Dylan Riley on an absolute tear this season.
Riley has recorded 90 rushing attempts so far this season, racking up 592 yards, which puts him third in all of college football on both accounts.
While Boise’s offense has looked very good up until this point, it's the Broncos' defense that anchors the team, with edge-rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and senior Max Stege both leading an elite pass rush that also features senior tackle David Latu.
Despite a slow start, the Broncos are coming off a stellar defensive performance, allowing an up-tempo Western Michigan offense to score just seven points in Boise’s blowout victory this past Saturday.
Danielson’s team surely enters this clash with a ton of confidence, thriving on both sides of the football.
Utah State vs Boise State Pick, Betting Analysis
After a phenomenal first win of the season over Troy in Week 4, Utah State now has to go on the road to face the most well-rounded team in the Pac-12.
I absolutely love the Broncos in this spot, and I bet them immediately when the line opened at -18.5 as sharp action inevitably hit the Boise State side in a spot it should be far more of a favorite.
While I locked in Boise State at -18.5, I would bet it at -20.5 in what I expect to be a blowout victory.
Pick: Boise State -20.5 (Play to -21)
