The UTSA Roadrunners take on the Texas State Bobcats in San Marcos, Texas. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on The CW.
Texas State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -114. The total is set at 66.5 points.
Here’s my UTSA vs. Texas State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12, 2026.
UTSA vs Texas State Prediction
- UTSA vs. Texas State Pick: Texas State ML (-114 or Better)
My Texas State vs. UTSA best bet is on the Bobcats to win straight up. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UTSA vs Texas State Odds
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 66.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 66.5 -105o / -115u | -114 |
- UTSA vs Texas State point spread: UTSA +1.5 (-110), Texas State -1.5 (-110)
- UTSA vs Texas State over/under: 66.5 (-105o / -115u)
- UTSA vs Texas State moneyline: UTSA -105, Texas State -114
UTSA vs Texas State College Football Preview
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview: Keep an Eye on McCown
For the last handful of seasons, UTSA has managed to return one of the country's most exciting quarterbacks. It's also sent some notable coordinators on, most recently Will Stein, now head coach at Kentucky.
This year, Owen McCown is the name to know. As a junior, McCown passed for over 3,800 yards and 29 touchdowns (though he was intercepted 13 times). In his season debut against UTRGV, McCown completed 22-of-27 passes for 275 yards and a trio of touchdowns.
Running back Will Henderson III didn't miss a beat with 101 yards (11.2 per carry) and a touchdown, while rotating back A'Marion Peterson broke loose for a 53-yard touchdown and averaged 6.1 yards on his other seven carries.
The biggest area of vacancy comes at receiver, a spot current Ohio State No. 2 option Devin McCuin left. Sophomore Mekhi Anderson led the team with seven targets, but it's clear McCown is looking for his next man up, as no other receiver had more than four.
The delta between UTSA's defensive output in Week 1 and its next opponent, rival Texas State (which played Texas), is so large it's not worth comparing. UTSA out-manned UTRGV while Texas State faced a massive talent deficit, especially up front.
However, in a vacuum, the Roadrunners did a nice job keeping their FCS foe in check.
Jeff Traylor and UTSA carved out a niche over the last six seasons — when UTSA is a home dog, you can feel confident backing it (8-1 ATS!). But outside the friendly confines of the Alamodome, UTSA is a much different beast.
UTSA is respectable, for sure — Traylor hasn't turned in a losing season here ever — but four of its six losses came on the road (including as a favorite at Temple) and, in 2024, all six of its losses came away from home.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview: Real Concerns on Defense
Make no mistake about it, Texas State's 59-7 drubbing at the hands of Texas was exactly that: a drubbing. But QB Brad Jackson and the offense did make some strides worth noting, and those lonely seven points aren't quite indicative of the production it had.
Twice, Texas State missed a field goal on drives of 13 and 16 plays, both of which died inside the Texas red zone. Another drive in Texas territory ended in a fumble-six the other way.
The defense was hilariously outmatched, but the offense left a lot of points on the table.
Jackson and top receiver Beau Sparks grab most of the Texas State attention. However, it's G.J. Kinne's run game that really drives this offense.
Even against Texas' defensive front, the Bobcat offensive line generated 3.01 yards of push per play, and the team did bust two 20+ yard rushes. Last year, in a 43-36 thriller against UTSA, both teams exhibited efficient rushing attacks.
Will Windham's debut as defensive coordinator was a tall order to be filled against the star-studded Texas offense. But even against offenses like UTSA, there's a real reason for concern that this unit won't improve much (if at all) from its No. 108 ranking in points per drive a season ago.
Texas State managed to record eight tackles for loss, but it allowed the Longhorns to gain 90% of available yards, and it didn't force a single punt — even Ball State forced a pair of Ohio State punts in a 56-3 loss.
That's likely this team's identity in 2026: Lots of excitement on offense and not much resistance on defense, though it might generate some havoc from time to time.
UTSA vs Texas State Pick, Betting Analysis
If you're not familiar with the Battle of I-35, allow this to be your foray into the heated rivalry. Having lived in San Marcos and worked for Texas State for a brief period, these are two schools and two fanbases that don't get along.
UTSA travels well for out-of-town games, bringing one of the most underrated tailgating scenes with them — and, despite inconsistent fan support for Texas State throughout the years, this is one fans always pack the stands for.
The Bobcats have remained -1.5 favorites for most of the existence of this line, save for a brief period where the Roadrunners flipped to the favorites and were immediately bet back the other way. The over took plenty of money, climbing from 63.5 to 66.5 points.
I'm concerned about Saturday's weather. San Marcos calls for highs in the upper 90s, pushing 100. Because of network demands, this game is slotted for a 2:30 p.m. CT kickoff — in the heat of the day, with the hottest point usually around 4 p.m. local. Expect frequent subs and cramps.
The last two iterations of this game have been high-flying, with last year resulting in that thrilling result. Texas State ran 70 plays against Texas at 25.4 seconds per play. Expect both Kinne and new UTSA OC Rick Bowie to push the tempo (24.7 seconds per play at Western Kentucky last year).
I don't expect either Kinne or Bowie to slow the tempo, as hot weather and pace favor the offense more. But with the line already far moved, I'm looking for a different angle.
My concerns are pretty severe with Traylor's inability to get things done on the road. He's lost three times as a favorite in the last two seasons, and 10 of his team's 12 losses were suffered in road games.
With defenses possibly nerfed due to the heat, I'm backing Texas State as a short home favorite.
Pick: Texas State ML (-114 or Better)
