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The Washington State Cougars take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, California, on Saturday, Oct. 31. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
San Diego State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -132. Washington State, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my Washington State vs. San Diego State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 31.
Washington State vs San Diego State Prediction
- Washington State vs. San Diego State Pick: San Diego State Team Total Over 25.5 (Play to 26.5)
My San Diego State vs. Washington State best bet is on the Aztecs to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Washington State vs San Diego State Odds
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -106 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -114 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -132 |
- Washington State vs San Diego State point spread: San Diego State -2.5 (-114), Washington State +2.5 (-106)
- Washington State vs San Diego State over/under: 49.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Washington State vs San Diego State moneyline: Washington State +110, San Diego State -132
Washington State vs San Diego State College Football Preview
Washington State Cougars Betting Preview: Lost Season
Things are bad for Washington State. Despite making a shift at quarterback from lauded FCS transfer Caden Pinnick to Owen Eshelman, the Cougars offense can't get out of neutral.
Eshelman had a terrific debut, combining for over 400 total yards and four touchdowns, but against Boise State last week, he completed 21-of-40 passes for just 191 yards.
That offense ranks 133rd in Points Per Drive and Adjusted EPA Per Play, resulting in an 0-7 record against FBS competition. Only Clemson, Sacramento State and Old Dominion score touchdowns on fewer drives than Wazzu.
The defense has managed to keep the Cougs in games — it held Utah State to just 17 points, and Boise State was held to 10 until the final quarter — but no juice on offense has stalled this season.
Head coach Kirby Moore made a change at coordinator, axing Matt Miller and taking over play-calling himself.
Wazzu scored 30 on Oregon State in his first trip out, and some vulnerable defenses lie on the horizon: San Diego State (119th in Points Per Drive allowed), Colorado State (last) and Texas State (98th).
It's not worth burying the new offense with Eshelman and Moore in a game where Wazzu was helplessly overmatched.
This season is a lost cause. Wazzu isn't going bowling, and the last goal to hit this year is just to win a game against an FBS opponent. But unless this offense can find some sort of success, that win might not come.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Time for Points
Quarterback Jayden Denegal will sit this week with an injury, giving way to backup Stone Saunders. In limited action, Saunders has been decent, targeting receivers downfield with good accuracy.
But San Diego State's offense runs through its ground game led by Javion Kinnard and Lucky Sutton. Sutton returned to the lineup in Week 7 and piled up 208 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his first two games back.
SDSU's offensive line has taken some hits this season, leading to eight different players logging 100-plus snaps. But so long as the line remains stable and both Kinnard and Sutton stay in the lineup, this is an offense on a positive trajectory.
The defense has been prone to giving up yards and points against college football's better offenses.
Though individual players are fine, the unit is exhausted from being on the field the entire game. Only Southern Miss' defense has been on the field more this season than the Aztecs (opponents have possessed the ball for 58.5% of plays this season).
Coordinator Demetrius Sumler plays the whole two-deep to keep his guys fresh — 19 defenders have 150-plus snaps already, and 15 have logged 200 — but the talent just isn’t quite there.
San Diego State ranks 119th in Points Per Drive allowed and 134th in Success Rate allowed, but it's 65th in opponent-adjusted EPA Per Play allowed. That’s fatigue. Not just in a game-to-game sense, but week-by-week attrition as players wear down due to prolonged time on the field.
Washington State vs San Diego State Pick, Betting Analysis
There's a clear buy line here at Washington State +3. Given the projected low scoring total (48.5, down from 50), Wazzu at +3 or better appears to be a sharp side.
Action PRO tabs several sharp moves to the under, but oddsmakers haven't budged under 48, which is a key total when betting college football.
Rain is expected in San Diego for this game, a rarity, but especially during the game. The best chance at precipitation comes after 4 p.m. PT, which is kickoff time.
Washington State's defense ranks in the bottom half of pretty much every metric we measure (EPA Per Play, Success Rate against both the run and pass, touchdown rate).
It doesn't have an excellent unit or phase of the game it really excels in and we've yet to see this unit really take control of the game against a quality offense.
Though the season-long measures don't define San Diego State as "quality," it's an ascending offense given a huge spark returning Sutton.
Neither team has had a bye week yet, marking some of the longest stretches of play in the country.
Washington State's defense has been wearing down as the weeks progress, and this week on the road against a physical running team that runs a lightning-fast tempo is a poor spot for it to rebound.
San Diego State's offense is settling in. This is a team total play to the over for the home team.
Pick: San Diego State Team Total Over 25.5 (Play to 26.5)
